This Election, Keep an Eye on the Votes from East Lansing, Michigan

On Election Night, analysts will spend a lot of time trying to get a handle on the turnout and margins among young voters. In the swing state of Michigan, a key city to watch is East Lansing, the home of Michigan State University, and the core of the College Town of Ingham County in the American Communities Project.

There are 171 College Town counties in the ACP map.

East Lansing in Ingham stands out for a few reasons. One, its location in a pivotal state. And two, in the 2020 election that produced record turnout, it is the rare case of a place that produced fewer votes in 2020 than in 2016. (There are a few other examples like this, including State College, Pennsylvania, the home of Penn State University.)

There are some unique circumstances that explain why that fall off happened, but, regardless of the reason, it makes the city (and others like it) a very useful case study for the college vote in 2024.

If turnout is up in East Lansing, the home of the ACP, compared to 2016, that would suggest a win for Vice President Kamala Harris’s goal of reaching and turning out the college vote. If it’s flat, or down, that’s likely a good sign for former President Donald Trump.

The numbers help explain why.

The Numbers

East Lansing is not an especially political town and Michigan State is not an especially political campus. However, neither is apolitical and come election time the city and campus show the expected liberal leaning.

In 2012, then-President Barack Obama won the city by about 41 percentage points. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the city by 49 points. And in 2020, President Joe Biden won it by more than 60 points.

But the numbers of votes cast in those elections went from 17,590 in 2012 to 17,491 in 2016, then dropped to just 13,869 in 2020. What happened? Covid-19. It hit everywhere, of course, but it had a disproportionate impact on East Lansing and college towns like it.

What makes East Lansing different and especially useful to study in 2024, is that it’s a true college town — that is, the MSU student population is a massive part of the community. There are about 48,000 people in East Lansing, and Michigan State’s fall enrollment is about 52,000. And in 2020, mid-pandemic, just a small fraction of the student body was in town.

Those students are back. And in that way, this election will present a clearer look at the student vote, specifically, on Nov. 5.

Higher education institutions are always important parts of college towns, of course, but most don’t have such an outsized impact on their immediate surroundings. The impact in East Lansing (and State College) is about the combination of a huge university in a relatively small hometown.

The University of Wisconsin and University of Michigan are both massive public universities, but their respective homes, Madison and Ann Arbor, are bigger cities — 280,000 and 120,000 people, respectively. Both cities produced more votes in 2020 than in 2016.

The ACP believes all parts of the nation’s various communities matter, of course. And College Towns tend to lean left for a variety of reasons, not just because students live there. But some College Towns offer a special view of the student vote — and East Lansing is one of them.

What To Watch

So, with all that in mind, what should election analysts be watching in East Lansing?

One big issue will be whether turnout surpasses 2016 levels. Again, that would be a win for Harris.

But if the turnout rises to 2016 levels or higher and Harris’s margin looks more like Biden’s in 2020, that is plus-61 percentage points, that means not only did the students vote, but their vote broke heavily her way. And if you see those numbers in East Lansing, they probably have meaning in other College Town communities as well — including those where the student vote is harder to read.

On the other hand, if the margins look more like 2016 or 2012, with Harris wins in the 40- to 45-point range, that’s a good sign for former president Donald Trump — in Michigan and likely elsewhere.