Americans Across Communities Struggle to Discern Facts on Voting, Crime, Immigration, and Economic Issues
Ever since the day of the 2020 presidential race, rumors have circulated about illegal votes and cases of voter fraud. And for years now, those rumors have been knocked down as false with no real evidence to support them — again and again and again.
And yet…
In this year’s research survey from the American Communities Project, fewer than four in 10 respondents, 38%, knew those rumors were false. Even in communities that voted for President Joe Biden by large margins, fewer than 50% said they knew the following statement was incorrect: “There are tens of thousands of documented cases of voter fraud in the last election.”
As the 2024 campaign winds down, that incorrect understanding of the election facts is important to keep in mind, but it is by no means the only area where Americans struggle to discern fact from fiction. There were nine factual true/false statements on the survey, covering everything from the economy to immigration to crime. For most issues, a majority of respondents gave the incorrect response. And again, that was true across all types of communities — encompassing urban and rural, diverse and less so, lots and fewer college degrees.
The challenge of knocking down falsehoods has been apparent in recent months as outlandish and unfounded stories have spread about everything from government-controlled weather to immigrants eating pets.
But the results from the newest ACP survey show Americans’ struggles in this area extend beyond hot topics to a range of areas in society. Their responses suggest a deeper problem, a nation locked in a media environment where dis- and misinformation are increasingly difficult to control and combat — or even correct after inaccuracies are discovered.
There are numerous differences in the ACP’s 15 community types, but even in places where people have more education and broader knowledge bases, the inability to identify the correct answers is apparent.
Voting and Elections
The survey presented two statements around elections: One around voter fraud, seen in the opening of this piece (which, again, is false), and one that says the Supreme Court has found it is constitutional to require voters to show identification before they vote (which is true).
In every community type, fewer than 50% of respondents identified these statements correctly — and most community types were not even close to 50% correct on either one.
Some of the expected leanings and biases show in the responses. For instance, communities that tend to vote Democratic — the Big Cities and Urban Suburbs — were more likely to know the “tens of thousands of documented cases of voter fraud” statement was false. And places that lean Republican — Working Class Country, Military Posts, and Evangelical Hubs — were more likely to know that the Supreme Court has found it is OK to request identification from voters.
But in every community type, a majority did not know the correct answer to either of those statements.
The State of the Economy
There are few issues Americans have more direct contact with and knowledge of than the U.S. economy. They know whether they and their friends and neighbors have jobs. They know what they pay when they do their monthly bills or at the supermarket checkout.
And the answers to the statements about economics suggested a more informed group of respondents — at least on inflation.
More than 60% of the people in every community type knew that “inflation remains above historic averages”— something that was definitely true when this survey was conducted in June and July.
But when the statement turned to unemployment, the respondents across communities missed the correct response. Nationally, only 35% knew that the “U.S. unemployment rate was at or near historic lows.” A selection of county types — Urban Suburbs, Exurbs, College Towns, and Graying America — did a little better, with 40% identifying the statement as true. While the right-leaning Evangelical Hubs' “true” answer was much lower, at 24%.
Again, however, the correct answer did not register above 50% in any community type.
Immigration
The issue of immigration is the opposite of the economy. It’s a topic upon which many have opinions, but fewer have direct contact. And that showed in the true/false section of our survey. People seemed to understand the broad facts of the data, but were wrong on the numbers’ implications, at least around crime.
The one statement people answered correctly (true) was “migration across the U.S.-Mexico border is at or near historic highs.” That story has been front-and-center in the media and roughly six in 10 respondents, 61%, got the answer correct. In fact, in every type more than 50% answered correctly, though, again Democratic-leaning places were lower and Republican-leaning places were higher.
But on the immigration statement around crime, not a single community type had more than 50% giving the correct answer. In the Urban Suburbs, 50% correctly said the statement “undocumented immigrants are more likely to commit violent crimes than native born Americans” was false. But that was a rare exception to the larger trend, and it still wasn’t a majority among a group of people that tends to be well-educated and knowledgeable. Furthermore, it is for a statement in which their political leaning probably should have led them toward the right answer.
Crime
And, finally, the survey offered three true/false statements around crime and policing where no community types had a majority giving the right answer. The three statements here were pretty grim — rising rates of killings by police, rising murders in 2023, and an epidemic of child kidnappings. The statements are all false and none of the community types came close to 50% on the correct answer.
Frankly, this finding is something of a surprise. Considering the drastically different worlds these places embody on a variety of topics, the uniformity here is hard to explain. Again, the typical Democratic/Republican divides emerge on these statements: Big Cities were less likely to know that killings by police officers were not rising, and Evangelical Hubs were less likely to know the murder rate fell in 2023. However, the differences were muted — and that may raise a larger point about the country.
Dour Days
To be clear, not all these statements are connected to misinformation or disinformation. Some are simply about people’s general knowledge. But in a larger sense, these results suggest people are not feeling good about the country right now. And that feelings, not facts, seem uppermost in mind.
Consider the fact that eight of these nine statements (all but the Supreme Court prompt) gave the respondent a chance to give a positive or negative response. Is inflation high? Is murder up? Is unemployment low? In every case, the respondents chose the negative response. They believe inflation is high, murder is climbing, and the unemployment rate is not good.
In fact, the two statements where more than 50% gave correct responses in all the community types were also the negative responses. Inflation has been above historical norms and migrations across the U.S.-Mexico border are at or near historic highs. These are true trends, but they are also not good trends, and that may be the primary reason why respondents gave the correct responses on them. The negative views of the respondents aligned with the truth.
And along with an inability to beat down mis- and dis-information, that may be the real story in these responses: the larger pessimistic attitude Americans have about what’s happening in the country in 2024. Given the choice between a positive view and a negative view, Americans seem inclined to take the latter.
That disposition certainly flies in the face of the traditional view of the American psyche built on optimism. The bigger question going forward may be whether our survey presents a one-time finding, reflects a temporary mood, or signals a fundamental shift in the American perspective.