As Tariffs Mount, a Michigan Manufacturing Hub Is Caught in Economic Uncertainty
SAGINAW, MICHIGAN – As the Trump administration dives deeper into the world of tariffs, different communities face different challenges. But places such as this county on the east side of Michigan face some of the biggest concerns.
Saginaw is a Middle Suburb in the American Communities Project and, like other counties in that group, its manufacturing economy is especially exposed in the back-and-forth, tit-for-tat of a trade war. Home to hulking factories, union workers, and end-of-the-shift bars, Saginaw feels like a slice of blue-collar Americana, but its heavy reliance on making and building things means trade with foreign countries is a crucial piece of daily life here.
And as the great trade war of 2025 escalates, people who know this community see the potential for real problems this year.
Manufacturing’s Big Footprint
For all the talk of the importance of manufacturing in the U.S. economy, people working in manufacturing make up about 10% of all employment in the United States. Analysts often see those jobs as crucial parts of the U.S. economy, however, because they usually offer better wages and benefits than other positions that require similar levels of education.
But not every community is created equal around manufacturing. In some ACP community types, these jobs play an even bigger role in the local economy.
Manufacturing jobs make up the highest percentage of positions in Rural Middle America, 17%. But the Evangelical Hubs and Middle Suburbs are right behind, at 16% of all jobs. Saginaw County sits right at that 16% number, according to Census data.
A lot of those jobs are tied to the auto industry, says Tanya Blehm, manager of the Great Lakes Bay Manufacturers Association, a group that works with local businesses in the sector — from automakers to plastics.
“We have a lot of tier auto suppliers in this area. So they’re affected. They’re affected by everything that happens with the automotive industry, whether it’s EVs or, you know, tariffs on steel and aluminum, because almost every part that goes in your car is either steel, aluminum, or plastic,” Blehm says.
And right now, they are confused and frozen, she says. Much of the steel and aluminum the auto makers and their suppliers use comes from other countries, especially Canada, which sits right on the other side of Lake Huron here.
The supply chains for those companies have been built up over decades as the United States and Canada made travel, and commerce, across the border easier. Now those same suppliers are wondering how much the next shipment will cost them and how it will impact their bottom line, she says. Some companies have built up their inventories of materials, suspecting tariffs might be coming, but those inventories won’t last forever.
Uncertainty Reigns
All that work and all those challenges mean that Michigan, home of the auto industry, is going to get harder by tariffs than most states. And Saginaw County will get hit harder than much of Michigan.
President Trump’s approach to tariffs creates two connected problems for manufacturers in the county, Blehm says. Most manufacturers don’t like tariffs that hit them in any way, of course, but just as concerning is the uncertainty around the tariffs, she says.
“I think they can’t decide what steps to take until they know for sure that the tariffs are going to go in place, and then what at what rate. If it’s just the 25% I think he initially planned, versus 50%, that’s a different landscape,” she says. “For some companies, they think if it’s 25, we might be able to work them in. If it’s 50, we might not be able to manufacture.”
Those concerns matter everywhere, of course. If cars become more expensive, they become more expensive for all consumers.
But in a place like Saginaw, the impacts are magnified. More expensive cars mean people are less likely to buy cars, which means fewer cars are made, which means the factory needs fewer workers, or the workers they have work less and get less overtime pay.
And the trickle-down effects are broadly felt in manufacturing hubs. Changes can lead to less money spent at local restaurants and stores, which means those places take an economic hit as well.
Zachary Cohle, an associate economics professor as Saginaw Valley State University, sees those dangers in Saginaw.
“The tariffs probably would sink this region, especially a 25% tariff with our neighbor, our largest trading partner in the States,” said Cohle. “We sell a lot to [Canada], and also we buy a lot.”
Cohle says the area was hammered in the Great Recession of the 2000s but started to recover in recent years. “We were seeing a lot of investment coming in, just a lot of federal money, lots of state money, yeah. We were seeing new construction, new buildings, new houses being developed all the time. It was looking really good.”
Now, he says, the environment has gotten “chaotic,” and many of the workers in the county live closer to the margins and are more exposed to hard times. The median household income in this county is about $58,000 — that’s $20,000 below the national average.
“If I were hoping to decimate a population, this would probably be how I would do it,” Cohle says, referring, in part, to work he has done around the opioid crisis. The epidemic has hit hard in Middle Suburb communities.
America’s Middle Suburbs
Political Matters
All these economic and social changes can also have very big political impacts in the Middle Suburbs because of where those 57 counites are largely based — in the swing states around the Great Lakes.
In 2016, President Trump won the Middle Suburb counties by about 13 percentage points; narrowly won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; and won the presidency. In 2020, Trump won the Middle Suburbs by only 10 points and narrowly lost those three states and the presidency. And in 2024, Trump won the Middle Suburbs by 13 points again, narrowly won those three states again — and recaptured the White House.
In other words, the Middle Suburbs matter a lot in states that matter a lot — and Saginaw County is a perfect example. The presidential candidate winning Saginaw has won Michigan in every presidential race going back to 1992. Trump carried the county by about 3 percentage points in 2024 after former President Joe Biden won it by 0.3 percentage points in 2020.
Trump won here for many reasons, of course. The equation that goes into voter decisions is usually complicated — especially in years with close races — but the economy certainly played a role. In December 2024, the unemployment rate in this county was 6.3%. At the same time, Michigan’s rate was 5%, while the national average was 3.8%.
But now, early into Trump’s second term and facing mounting tariffs, some in Saginaw are wondering how it might all play out, Brehm says. “I think a lot of them were thinking that as soon as Trump got in, everything was going to be better, and now they’re thinking, is it going to be better, or is it going to be worse?”
The way Saginaw and other Middle Suburbs answer that question is going to play a big role in how this presidency unfolds.