How San Francisco Bay Area Residents Are Confronting a Persistent Housing Crisis

by Marjon Saulon August 03, 2021 Print
Laurel Heights neighborhood in San Francisco. Photo by Torehan Sharman/Unsplash.

For many, buying a home is a symbol of the American dream.

It is the ultimate goal in the formula told by parents across the country. Go to school, get a job, then buy a house.

But for thousands of families and individuals in California, it is a recipe from a bygone era. Consider the San Francisco Bay Area with over 7 million people living in 101 cities and towns, encompassing nine counties: Alameda (Big City), Contra Costa (Urban Suburb), Marin (Urban Suburb), Napa (Urban Suburb), San Francisco (Big City), San Mateo (Urban Suburb), Santa Clara (Big City), Solano (Urban Suburb), and Sonoma (Urban Suburb). The region’s median house prices reached $1.3 million in May, with bidding wars causing prices to soar just one year into the pandemic.

For Nick and Jessica, a couple in their mid-twenties working as a software engineer and designer, house hunting has been a discouraging process. After going through numerous listings and house viewings, they signed an agreement for a five-unit, multi-family house in late July. Their plan was to invest in the property with family members, and to live in one of the units while renting out the rest to help pay for the mortgage. They explained how in Alameda, a city set on a six-mile long island next to Oakland, many families look for single-family homes with spacious backyards to raise their families. As a result, multi-family homes aren’t priced as competitively.

But after finding problems during the home inspection, they decided to back out after a week. They would have bought the house for $2.1 million. “So many of us are sold on the process of working hard, going to college, and buying a house,” the couple says. “But that’s just not how the process is. It is not romantic at all.”

They acknowledge that they are still fortunate to be in a position to look for homes, thanks to support from family. Both Nick and Jessica live with their parents, but hope to move in together once they purchase a home. “Right now we’re lucky to be living in Alameda and working decent jobs. But if you’re not in tech, or aren’t an engineer or lawyer, how can you possibly come up with the money for a down payment?”

It is a problem that thousands of families are facing across the Bay Area. Solutions are in the early stages as local leaders face solving the challenges of restrictive zoning laws, wages, and accessible and affordable transportation.

Too Many Jobs, Too Little Housing

The City of San Francisco. Photo by Ryan Taylor.

A central factor in the crisis is that there are lots of jobs being created, but little housing built for the people working them. Between 2009 to 2018, there were 3.5 jobs created for every housing permit issued in the Bay Area. That, in addition to restrictive zoning laws, politics, and the rise of housing costs, has made the region a victim of the crisis. The price of lumber, for example, increased from historic averages hovering below $500 per thousand board foot, to a peak of $1,670 this May.

According to Tim Iglesias, a lawyer and housing expert at the University of San Francisco, the rules of supply and demand don’t apply to the Bay Area. “There’s an inexhaustible demand for high-end housing,” he says. “But there are so many rich people that builders could build high-end housing day and night for years.”

Iglesias says that unless housing is targeted for a specific population, and built with policies to ensure that it is affordable and in areas with good schools, the housing crisis will not be solved. He says there are also entrenched interests in the way. Because many regular voters are homeowners, and many homeowners are more conservative, it is hard to reduce or eliminate exclusionary zoning laws. One example is single-family zoning, a policy that has prevented cities across California and the Bay Area from building multi-family units. In San Francisco, advocates of the policy say that building more housing in neighborhoods will cause traffic and congestion, while opponents argue that it is used to keep working-class families and people of color out of affluent neighborhoods.

He notes that policies are part of a larger ecosystem. “Individual cities can create decent policies, but the housing crisis is a regional crisis,” says Iglesias. “There’s a job market, transportation, and a housing market that all interact in the Bay Area.”

What Cities Are Doing

In Oakland, a major city on the east side of the San Francisco Bay, the housing crisis has made the city unaffordable to many of its residents. Despite having been a more affordable, working- class city throughout the mid- to late-20th century, the creation of thousands of jobs in Silicon Valley and lack of housing development have led to skyrocketing home values in Oakland. From 2011 to 2021, median home values in the city increased from $380,000 to $890,000. As a result, more residents looked to live in more affordable options, like tiny homes, ranging between 100 and 400 square feet, and RVs.

An RV in Oakland. Photo by Wesley Johnson/Unsplash.

According to Darin Ranelletti, Policy Director for Housing Security at the City of Oakland, the city is proposing a plan to legalize tiny homes and RVs parked in private property. This would allow homeowners to make money from renting out such spaces, but at prices lower than the city’s average rent of $2,600. “We looked at the planning and zoning rules and saw how they were out of date,” he says. “So we wanted to legitimize these places that cost less to build, while enabling these residents to live in a safe and healthy way.” Construction for a single unit can go above $600,000, while tiny homes can be built for approximately $115,000.

The proposal is only part of a regional approach the city is leveraging to solve the housing crisis. In 2019, a state bill was passed to create the Bay Area Housing Financing Authority (BAHFA), a regional authority governed and staffed by Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) personnel, but operated as a separate legal entity. “It gives, for the first time ever, a regional approach to housing solutions,” Ranelletti says. “When Washington provides funding for transportation, it goes through MTC, the regional funding agency for transportation. Up until now, we did not have a similar entity for regional housing funding.”

Some elected officials say current federal funding is not enough. Mason Fong, a Democratic Councilmember for the City of Sunnyvale — a Silicon Valley city that is home to Yahoo and LinkedIn — says the city gets more funding from commercial taxes than federal grants. In 2019, before the pandemic caused many offices to close, the city received nearly $11 million in housing mitigation fees — fees that several Silicon Valley cities charge developers to offset the costs of building affordable housing. While in 2021, the City received a $1.4 million grant for affordable housing from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The challenge, however, is educating residents and voters about the need for housing and the costs of housing development. “Most residents don’t understand the relationship between commercial and affordable housing funding,” he says. “Because affordable housing units cost more than $500,000 per unit to build, most cities use the funds provided via commercial development to pay for affordable housing development.”

He also points to the fact that in Silicon Valley, people are considered to be living in poverty if they make less than $115,000. Many of the homes built in the 1960s are also selling for more than $2.5 million. On top of that, he says that everyone is bidding up to 10% more than what people are asking for. Median sale prices for homes are at $1.69 million, while median rent prices are at $2,508. “I know for a fact that I can’t afford a home in my own city,” Fong says. Sunnyvale Councilmembers are paid an annual salary of $32,000, with some Councilmembers, including Fong, working additional jobs.

Private Sector Solutions

With complex zoning laws and rising housing costs, some businesses have looked at the crisis as an opportunity to create innovative solutions.

Mighty Buildings, a startup based in Oakland, creates 3D printed homes and accessory dwelling units (ADUs), also known as granny flats or in-law units. With the company’s ADUs starting at $187,000, and its homes selling for up to $431,000, the company hopes to provide more affordable and environmentally sustainable housing options for residents in the Bay Area. In an article by TechCrunch, the company stated that it is able to print 3D structures “as quickly with 95% less labor hours and 10-times less waste than conventional construction.” A 350-square-foot studio apartment, for example, could be built in 24 hours and sold for $115,000.

Tech giants have also looked to play a role. In 2019, Google pledged to invest $1 billion to tackle the housing crisis. Already $115 million of the pledge has been allocated to build affordable housing, including investments in companies like Factory OS, a startup that lowers construction costs by building modular apartments, homes built section-by-section in off-site factories. The investment has helped the Factory OS build more than 1,000 housing units in Northern California, at costs 20% to 40% lower than traditional housing construction.

Modular housing however, would only be part of the solution. Local leaders will still need to solve other issues like zoning laws, wages, and accessible and affordable transportation.

Bay Area organizations and governments have signaled a determination to invest in regional solutions. With $20 million in funding from the California state budget, San Francisco’s regional Bay Area Housing Finance Authority announced plans to launch five pilot programs for the region, though no timeline was given. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments, the plan will connect residents with affordable housing options, provide financing and technical assistance, and create a database of affordable homes in development for funders to track and prioritize. It will also implement a regional homelessness prevention system through the San Francisco-based nonprofit All Home, which provides housing assistance, legal services, and financial counseling to renters.

While regional leaders have an enormous challenge ahead of them, many residents may have to postpone long-awaited dreams of owning a home.

A dream increasingly distant, for many living in the Golden State.

Marjon Saulon is a writer based in Alameda, California. He has written about politics and civic engagement for the San Diego Union-Tribune and Times of San Diego.

Podcast: Dying in Georgia — Fast or Slow, but Too Soon

by Ray Suarez July 21, 2021 Print

Editor’s note: This podcast from Ray Suarez is a companion to his story: “In Metro Atlanta, Two Communities — One White, One Black — Differently Grapple with Deaths of Despair.”

There are two strong contributors to early death in Georgia, and in America as a whole: firearms, and substance abuse. Georgia is not even close to the top of the state tables for Deaths of Despair, overall. It’s somewhere around the middle for household income among the 50 states. But when you look at who dies early in Georgia, there are some aspects of Deaths of Despair that stand out. Instead of one big peak in late middle age, there are two peaks, among young adults and another in late middle age.

Like most places in America, men in Georgia are more likely to end their own lives than women, but in Georgia, the difference is more than three to one. Look closer, however, and another sharp difference emerges. Home to one of the largest Black populations of any state, Georgia’s suicide ranking falls because Black people, particularly Black men, kill themselves so much less frequently than white men.

Listen to Ray Suarez’s 26-minute podcast here.

 

Ray Suarez is co-host of the public radio program and podcast World Affairs, and covers Washington for Euronews. He is the author of three books on American life, most recently Latino Americans: The 500-Year Legacy That Shaped a Nation.

In Metro Atlanta, Two Communities — One White, One Black — Differently Grapple with Deaths of Despair

by Ray Suarez July 19, 2021 Print

You might assume U.S. states wrestling with premature death from suicide and substance abuse were places of failure and decline, where the human toll of disappointment illustrated bigger problems about life in that state. But America’s more complicated than that. Understanding the evolving human condition can require both flying overhead at 30,000 feet, and walking streets on your own two feet, before rustling around in the data to see where the story’s hiding. (Listen to Suarez’s accompanying podcast.)

In the last decade Georgia has grown more than most American states, adding more than a million people between the just-released census and the last one. Georgia is part of the wider trend of population shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West. It is now the eighth most populous state in the union, and floats around the national average and the median of the 50-state rankings for household income. The sprawling Atlanta metro continues to send out its concrete and asphalt fingers into surrounding counties, and is now one of the ten largest in the US, with a population of more than 6 million people. It also holds 11 of the American Communities Project’s 15 types.

Georgia is diverse: home to large and growing Latino and Asian populations, and one of the largest Black populations of the 50 states, some 4 million strong. Georgia presents America in microcosm in many ways; racially, economically, home to a vast, sprawling metropolitan area and many small, rural counties where demographics have changed little in the last century. The long Atlantic coastline is home to many towns welcoming seniors from other parts of Georgia and retirees from other parts of the country.

Unlike some of the states in this American Communities Project series, Georgia does not rank high among the places where a person is most likely to end his or her life, either all at once by suicide, or over time through the ravages of untreated depression, chronic pain, and substance abuse. While Georgia ranks 37th among the states in suicide rate, it has followed the national trend line for suicide upward, even as it trails other southern states and America as a whole.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s statistics released last week show continuing challenges nationwide. More than 93,000 people died from drug overdoses in 2020, an increase of 30% and the highest percentage increase recorded in a single year. Percentage increases were particularly high in southern and western states. (The CDC did not release county-level data.)

What might catch your attention as you look at the numbers coming from Georgia is this: the vast gulf between Deaths of Despair among white and Black Georgians, and men and women. By the reckoning of the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and the United Health Foundation, the number of potential years of life lost before age 75 per 100,000 population among Black people in Georgia is well below the national average, while the same metric for white people is well above the national average. Looking at suicide alone, white men end their lives at a rate more than twice that of Georgians as a whole, while Black men do so at a rate trailing the state averages. In Georgia, white men end their own lives at a rate 2-1/2 times that of Black men, 3-1/2 times that of white women, and at a rate more than 13 times higher than Black women. The gaps are so pronounced they demand further examination.

Two Counties with Very Different Demographics

For an illustration, take a look at two Georgia counties that stand in stark contrast to each other, Dawson and Clayton. Dawson is, in the American Communities Project formula, an Exurb, while Clayton is defined as part of the African American South. The latest census reports that Dawson is roughly 91% white (non-Hispanic) and 1% Black. It is, even amid Covid-reduced traffic, an hour drive north of Atlanta, its giant outlet mall the last outpost of suburban sprawl before the landscape gives way to deep woods and tiny towns. Clayton, roughly 73% Black and 9% non-Hispanic white, is one of the cluster of counties adjacent to Atlanta, and home to Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.

If you zoom out to the dispassionate distance of data sets on a page, the two counties share some traits, and are distinctly different. At just under 300,000 residents, Clayton is small and densely populated. Dawson is large and home to fewer than one tenth the people at just above 26,000. Both counties, like Georgia itself, have experienced double-digit population growth in the last decade. The two counties have roughly the same number of people per household, yet Dawson’s home ownership rate, just over 80%, far exceeds Clayton’s, which is less than half of all households. Though both counties have roughly the same percentage of adults who are high school graduates, Dawson’s residents have finished a four-year college degree at a rate approaching the national average, while Clayton’s residents are well below it. Just 8.8% of Dawson’s residents live in poverty, the figure is almost twice that in Clayton.

Dawson, one of the birthplaces of NASCAR and home to father and son champion drivers Bill and Chase Elliott, experiences 72 Deaths of Despair per 100,000 residents. Clayton, fictional home to Scarlett O’Hara’s Tara in “Gone With the Wind,” posts a rate of Deaths of Despair one third the size, 24 per 100,000 residents. Driving the difference? Dawson County — a place of rapid development, new roads, and growing employment — had the highest suicide rate of all Georgia’s 159 counties in the decade from 2010-2019. Through the frame of the ACP, Dawson is an outlier in that regard. Its age-adjusted suicide rate of 33 per 100,000 towers over the Exurbs figure of 14 per 100,000.

I spoke with the Chairman of Dawson County’s board of health, Dr. Larry Anderson, in his busy clinic on a hill overlooking a giant network of strip malls. “If you look out the window and go past those trees there, that's the end of metro Atlanta. You are now in rural Georgia. So we're out here on the fringe. The saying is, 'It's not how far you move away from Atlanta, it's how many years are you away from Atlanta reaching you.' So, Atlanta grows, it comes this way. When we moved here, the big box stores across the way in 2005, Walmart was not here, Home Depot was not here. If you look on the other side of our Premium Outlet Mall, nothing was there. And now it's a huge development with Kroger on one side, Publix on the other, and we're building back towards Atlanta instead of moving away.”

Dr. Anderson suggested there were realities hiding behind the published statistics, of the human and physical geography of the place. For one thing, he suggested the per capita and household income statistics, as aggregations, hid the struggles of many of his neighbors “because you're dealing with, I think, earned money versus wealth that you bring. So we're looking at homes here that, you know, at value say five years ago were $350,000 and up, and the average household income's like $20,000, you know, it's like kind of hard to get federal grants now with numbers like that.” Home value, he said, can send deceiving messages about family economic health.

Like so many people who live and work in Dawson, Dr. Anderson moved here from elsewhere. When he looks at the new built environment, he sees a society in transition, and one that is bound to have problems on the journey to setting down roots. He sees older people flocking to purpose-built communities providing managed care, and young couples drawn from Atlanta by new jobs and low housing costs. A big subdivision may be full, but it might be a while before the new renters are really “neighbors,” and just a short time after that, they may be on the move again.

The Quest to Foster Connection

Jill Mays, Director of the Office of Behavioral Health Prevention at the Georgia Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Disabilities told me part of the state’s five-year strategy for driving down the state’s suicide rate is fostering connection. “Part of that action plan addresses individual need for socialization and for feeling connected, and they actually map out steps, like can we get you connected to a gym? Can we get you connected to a church? Can we get you connected to a recovery support group or a recovery community where you can, you know, work through that tendency to isolate, where you do get those connections… it’s kind of like, I don’t know, I could be dating myself, but the show ‘Cheers,’ you know the song, ‘sometimes you want to go where everybody knows your name.’ And that, that, it might be, you know, a cute song, but it’s really a great recovery principle; you want people, we all want people to know us and to accept us just as we are, and to understand that we’re not always OK, and that sometimes we will need help, and that there are people who are very willing to offer that help. So our peers play a powerful role in extending what we can do in terms of the clinical piece of suicide treatment.”

Neil Campbell, Executive Director of the Georgia Council on Substance Abuse, has watched with concern as the pandemic drove people apart, always risky for people fighting misuse of alcohol or drugs. “We often say the opposite of addiction is human connection. So when Covid hit and I saw places that were shut down, and my office shut down, we panicked, but we also did a huge pivot toward online recovery meetings.” Moving the face-to-face sessions online took off. “We have thousands of people still to this day calling in to those meetings and we still have them twice a day, 10 o’ clock and 7 o’ clock in the evening. We started an LGBTQ meeting once a week, and we do two Spanish-speaking meetings a week because people were so lonely and so isolated…that isolation is immense.”

Training Physicians to Watch for Signs

The sociologist Emile Durkheim pioneered the study of social connection and social ills, using the term “anomie,” to describe a state of disconnection from the world of others around you. I thought of anomie again and again as Georgians talked to me about healthy relationships and connection, and the dangers of their absence. In a place like Dawson County, most people are not dangerously isolated and prone to self-destructive behavior. However, for those vulnerable to loneliness, depression, despair, and the toll they can take, you have to work to defeat the effects of geography to create connection.

Rachel Holloman is the Department of Behavioral Health and Development Disabilities Coordinator for Region 4, which includes Dawson County. Holloman says one of the first lines of defense in a place like Dawson, where men are unlikely to turn up at a care provider and volunteer that they are alone or sad, is to train physicians to watch more closely. “While they won’t necessarily use those words, there may also be physical aspects that a doctor can pick up on that can show that they are showing signs of anxiety or depression. Particularly when you talk about primary care physicians, family physicians, those physicians that see you on a regular basis. We find that men are a lot more likely to go into their primary care physician and admit there’s something going on, whether they address it as a mental health need or not, that can be one of those doors of access where we real easily catch what’s going on. And then we can also partner with primary care physicians to help reduce that stigma, to help them make the referrals, to help them open that door. Then again, particularly if you have male primary care physician that’s working with that male, it really helps to have a, a doctor, a medical doctor tell you, ‘Hey, listen, this is not OK. There are resources out there that can help with this.’”

Georgia gets low grades from the United Health Foundation for its prevention of non-medical drug use, its provision of medical insurance, and the overall access to care. United Health’s annual health rankings also conclude the state’s high incidence of avoiding health care due to cost and the prevalence of high-risk sexual behavior contribute to the numbers of lost years of life.

A Funeral Director and Coroner’s Perspective

Just across the road from the complex that serves as Dawsonville’s City Hall, and the History Museum and Racing Hall of Fame is a large funeral home, operated by Ted Bearden. Bearden has seen a lot of death in his working life, as the operator of the funeral home and as the county’s elected coroner. In his business, and in his official capacity, he was busy as Covid burned through Dawson County, which suffered a death rate of some 132 per 100,000 population, roughly the exact rate of far more densely populated Clayton, well to the south. “Three fourths of the people we were picking up were Covid-positive. My kids stopped me from going into hospitals and nursing homes. if I had to go out on a coroner’s case, there were cases that I worked where I never actually went in the house. If they were natural deaths, I had the family come to the porch, and I stood in the yard. Even when it kinda started to subside a little, I’d knock on the door, and call inside ‘Is anybody in the house currently have Covid, are you aware of anybody in this house who’s been exposed to Covid? Has the deceased had Covid?’ If the answer was no, no, no, I’d say ‘OK, I’m gonna come in and talk to you, if all of you would move to the other side of the room.’ I never got an argument!”

Friendly, open, voluble, ready with a telling anecdote, Bearden has a unique vantage point for understanding the end of life in the community where he has lived all his life. Of a close friend who descended into depression and alcohol abuse after the death of a child he said, “He killed himself. He didn’t take a gun to his head or hang himself, but he killed himself. He was depressed, and he did not seek professional help, and he died. And I buried him. Sometimes it doesn’t say ‘suicide’ on a death certificate, but sometimes suicide can be a natural cause.”

As county coroner, Bearden said he rarely lists suicide as the cause of death in drug overdoses, unless he can clearly establish intent, and that is rare. He is sure, he said, that many of the people who die from overdoses did not mean to take their own lives, but instead run afoul of the body’s tendency to need more and more of some widely used drugs to achieve the same effect. Drug interactions, and the tendencies of some drugs to exacerbate the effects of others, he said, leads to people dying when all they wanted was an escape from the day’s problems, or a good night’s sleep.

In past years Dawson has had flare-ups, rashes, of teen suicide. For older people, Bearden cited familiar stressors, marital breakup, financial crises, medical problems. None of those were present with the high schoolers who were taking their own lives. Social and relationship problems so overwhelmed them in some cases, Bearden said, they resorted to “like the old saying goes, a permanent solution to a short-term problem.” Faced with the challenge of suicides and attempted suicides, the high school finally instituted education, outreach, and early warning and detection policies, which seem to be working.

Drawing People Out Who Don’t Ask for Help

In Clayton County, all the difficulties of daily life are just as present. Teenage boys and girls pair up and break up. Couples head for divorce court. Working people face long-term financial hardship. Yet the Deaths of Despair in Clayton are a fraction of those detected in Dawson. Indeed, Clayton’s Deaths of Despair rate is even low compared to the communities of the African American South overall, 22.5 per 100,000 versus 39 per 100,000. Why? People in Clayton were not always aware of the numbers, but they were not surprised by them.

At the same time, the vast difference between Black and white Georgians in this regard was not that easy to explain. Karen Daniels is an activist and former addict who now works in rehabilitation and prevention in Clayton County. She thought about the much lower suicide rate in Clayton and searched for an answer. “The fact is it hasn’t been a part of our culture.” At the same time as relatively fewer people end their own lives, there is persistent drug abuse. “We find another way, anything thing to take us away, but it doesn’t kill us.

“You don’t ask for help. Keep it in the family. We’re not gonna get any kind of mental health services because that’s kind of frowned on in families. We’re gonna pray you through this.”

Luvenia Jackson is a member of the Clayton County Health Board, and a longtime school administrator. She agrees with Daniels that this aspect of Black culture developed in an era of persistent government neglect. Self-reliance did not necessarily develop as a virtue, but instead in response to the low expectation that anyone was coming to help. “Given that kind of upbringing, or socialization, people are brought up that you’ve got to take care of yourself.

“People are brought up, you gotta take care of yourself. Don’t trust the police. Don’t trust mental health officials, those kinds of things. You end up thinking you’ve got to take care of yourself. You’ve got to make it. You just gotta make it, you don’t show mental health issues. You work it out.”

Daniel’s observation made sense. At the same time, it was the exact opposite of the messages coming from the state, urging people struggling with depression, substance abuse, or suicidal ideation to come forward for care, counseling, and treatment. That old ethic of sucking it up and soldiering on might get you through a few rough days or weeks, but when it does not work the consequences can be deadly.

Jill Mays, who is African American, noted the stigma, noted the persistent need for services, and is trying to develop strategies for reaching men in trouble who might not otherwise seek help. “Men will open up and talk in a barbershop about things that they may not talk about at home with their wife, they may not talk about, you know, at work, but they’ll talk to their barber and the other guys sitting around, so our thinking is if we can train the barbers to have that conversation and to make the referral, it kind of normalizes help-seeking for men. And so that’s one of the ways that we try to combat that, those, you know, kind of social things that, that are kind of born, bred into different community groups. And it’s not just men. There are minority groups across the state who have that same thing that they were taught, you know, you don’t talk about our family problems or your personal problems outside of the house. You know, it, you appear weak if you ask for help. So try to combat that stigma in all areas where it’s impacting people being willing to ask for help.”

Self-Pride and Respect as Counter Forces

Jeffrey Turner came to elected office as the Chairman of Clayton’s Board of Commissioners after a long tenure as the county’s chief of police. He rose to command after joining the force as one of the first Black patrolmen. After spending years emphasizing enforcement as a response to drug use, he now has to see the problem from an entirely different position, as he fights for more funding from the state for diversion, rehabilitation, and access to mental health services. He is also the chairman of the county’s board of health. Off the top of his head, he can paint a vivid demographic portrait of his county’s people: younger than other Georgians, more likely to live in a female-headed household, more likely to move and change jobs frequently.

Yet when I laid out the differences in Deaths of Despair between Dawson and Clayton, he got personal. “We are taught at a very, very young age to be men, you always have to fight, and go beyond what’s expected of you. Because we have been suppressed, depressed, we have been held back, we have always had to be ten times better than white males or others to prove ourselves.

“So there’s a sense of pride there, and I know for me personally, suicide or trying to hurt myself or others never entered the equation. Simply because I was always taught to respect somebody but also to have self-pride.

“A lot of Black men that I have dealt with have that similar upbringing.”

Firearm Ownership as Part of Southern White Identity

Dr. Jonathan Metzl, a Missouri psychiatrist, has been looking closely at the differences between rates of early deaths of different kinds of Americans. The author of “Dying of Whiteness,” Metzl has conducted hundreds of interviews and focus groups to assess the attitudes and personal choices of different Americans, their relationship to the health care system, governments, and aid programs. He has observed that these attitudes come bundled, not one-by-one. If you were anti-mask and anti-vaccine, it was more likely you were also against any restrictions on gun ownership, and against the Affordable Care Act. “What I've found in my research is that every one of those decisions that are so core to the construction of a kind of, at least currently a southern white identity, takes off months and years of your life sometimes, individually and at an aggregate level, at a group level.”

Almost two out of three suicides in Georgia are accomplished using firearms. The typical Georgia household is more likely to have a firearm than the typical American household. The difference would likely be even greater if not for the state’s large Black, Latino, and Asian populations, which are all less likely to own a firearm. I asked Dr. Anderson about an office consultation during which a patient told him he had thought of committing suicide. Would he ask that patient if there was a firearm in the house, knowing of the correlation between firearm ownership and accidental and intentional deaths by firearm? His answer was quick. No, he would not. “Why should I plant an idea into your head if you're thinking of suicide? Oh, let me tell you the best way to do it!” A physician, but also a veteran, and the holder of a concealed carry permit, Dr. Anderson easily shifted gears into many defenses gun owners posit to defend their legal right and their hobby: that people use other means to commit suicide, that cars kill people but nobody suggests banning cars, that restricting the availability of firearms would not end suicide.

Worries About Guns After the Pandemic

Dr. Metzl is waiting to see what the pandemic does over time to the particular white affection for guns. The states with the highest percentages of white population are also the states with the highest levels of gun ownership. Almost none of the states with the highest percentage of gun-owning households are in the Northeast and Midwest. Why would the pandemic change the picture? Because, Metzl said, the pressures are there to shift gun ownership away from a white racial script. “There's so much anxiety, I mean, if you think about it, just talking to a stranger is a mortal risk, because they could give you the coronavirus, and there's so much mistrust and this breakdown of governance, and so this marketing now about, you know, the police aren't going to protect you, so arm yourselves, and things like that, it has a different and very real valence during a pandemic.

“And we've seen millions and millions of guns sold. And so, I can tell you that the experience before the pandemic of white America with guns is one that unregulated gun sales lead to feelings of power and privilege on one hand, and dramatically rising rates of all kinds of gun death, suicide, partner violence, accidental shooting on the other.

“And I worry that that's going to become an American story, not just a white America story given just the ways that guns have been sold in this pandemic.” The numbers bear out Dr. Metzl’s fears. The National Instant Criminal Background Check System reports nearly 40 million guns were purchased during 2021. The Journal of the American Medical Association published research from UC Davis’ Violence Prevention Program that suggested an intersection between concerns about rising crime, rising psychological distress driven by the pandemic, and fear of widespread unrest like that seen across the country had encouraged more people to buy guns.

A related paper from UC Davis, by Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz, Amanda Aubel, and Julia Schleimer, sounds an ominous warning: the pandemic and concern about violence drive firearms acquisition, which increases firearm ownership in stress conditions, which in turn increases the “burden of violence” on households and communities. Previously observed spikes in firearm purchases, like those after highly publicized mass shootings, have been followed by increases in firearm-related injury and death.

Data Continue to Guide Response on Early Death

Unlike statistics around infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, the impact of a change in attitudes toward firearms will be harder to measure, and of much longer duration. It is important to note that while violent crime has risen recently, the number of guns purchased in the U.S. has risen steadily most years since the end of the last century, and through most of that period violent crime in the country declined. Dr. Anderson, skeptical of physician attempts to assess gun ownership among those at risk for suicide, supports primary care physicians and other high contact medical professionals being more careful about watching for signs of depression and suicidal ideation. Press too hard on follow-ups about guns, he suggests, and people would simply lie, as he said men did when firearms-related questions became standard at VA hospitals, “and so if you asked them questions like that, the answer was always no.”

Jill Mays said Georgia will base its responses to early death on data. She said it is getting better all the time, and guides who gets attention, and where program development, funding, and personnel are directed. Watching for signs in the massive volume of information coming from counties, Mays noted, Georgia has been able to respond to a recent rise in suicide among adolescent girls, just as it responded with assessment, information, and follow-up to the discovery that suicide risks were elevated for veterinarians. That is how fine-grained the data has been. “We’ve though, we’ve planned out, and we can tell you here’s the top five things that we need. So we’re ready with the answer when the funding comes down.”

Ray Suarez is co-host of the public radio program and podcast World Affairs, and covers Washington for Euronews. He is the author of three books on American life, most recently Latino Americans: The 500-Year Legacy That Shaped a Nation.

On a Mission to Stop Youth Suicide in Philadelphia

by Ari Pinkus July 14, 2021 Print
Sarah-Ashley Andrews

Sarah-Ashley Andrews was 25 when she tragically lost her dear friend to suicide nine years ago. Ever since, she’s been working to give young people the tools to lead healthier lives. In 2012, Andrews founded the nonprofit Dare 2 Hope in Philadelphia, and continues to run the organization today. Its mission is to conquer suicide in youth and young adults, ages 8 to 24.

Suicide, particularly among youth, is an acute challenge all over America, drawing heightened attention in the pandemic. In Philadelphia County, the overall suicide rate is 10 per 100,000 people. For Big Cities, the suicide rate is 11.4 per 100,000. Nationally, the rate stands at 14.3, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s data from 2015-2019. (Philadelphia County’s numbers aren’t available by age.)

I caught up with Andrews for a wide-ranging interview, addressing the stigma around suicide, Dare 2 Hope's approach with youth, adapting to the pandemic, and what gives her hope. Our interview has been edited and condensed below. Listen to the full 19-minute interview here: Sarah-Ashley Andrews Interview

Why Andrews Started Her Work

Back in 2012, I lost a friend to suicide; he died by suicide. We were 25 years old, and it took us all by surprise. We didn't know he was even suffering from any kind of mental illness or suffering with suicidal thoughts. So from that, I wanted to create something where I could educate people. I just wanted to make people aware of what was going on with people's mental health, especially in the Black community.

Using Education and Life Experience as Guiding Lights

When I first went to college, I was a mass communications major. I wasn't even thinking about mental health or anything like that. Once [my friend] passed, I changed my focus to human services. I got my undergrad degree in biblical studies and human services. And then I realized that I wanted to help people in a larger capacity. I went back to get my master's in counseling, psychology. Now I just passed my national counselor examination and am on track to get my license to be a licensed psychotherapist.

So it really has shaped my work; it just allows me to be more knowledgeable. When I first started Dare 2 Hope, I would bring my friend, who had her master's in counseling already, as backup.

Dare 2 Hope’s Open Approach

What makes it unique is that I can be very relatable. I'm small, 5”1’ and like 108 pounds. So I can relate when we go into schools. A lot of schools we go to in the urban community; I grew up in North Philadelphia, which is an urban neighborhood in Philadelphia.

And my approach is to be as real as I can, to be as transparent as I can, with the students, with the teachers, with the staff, because that's how we have real conversations, when we make it a safe place to have unrestricted conversations. And when I'm transparent enough about the stuff that I went through, it makes it easier for people to open up and share what they've been going through.

How the Organization Adapted to the Pandemic

Prior to Covid and stay-at-home orders, we would actually go into schools. We had an opportunity to get face to face with the students, have assemblies, have our workshops that would last for six weeks. So we got to really get to know the students we work with.

When the pandemic hit, of course, all that stopped because school went virtual. But then we had to redirect our program. How could we still reach these children, and not be able to actually see them? So we created a Safe Saturdays program, where we host a virtual platform on Saturdays. Kids can log in and get the same six-week program they would get in their school.

During the pandemic, I also created a podcast, where each week I can talk about mental wellness. So that's something else that I pivoted on, and it created another outlet for us to get the word out about mental wellness.

How People of Different Ages Respond

The older the audience, the harder it is to break the stigma. Younger kids will always talk when you build trust with them. But the older we get, there's more of a fight. So a lot of what we talk about is total mental wellness: healthy eating, exercising, but then a bigger component of that is therapy. And within the Black community, it’s still kind of looked down upon. We can convince teens to live well, but when they get older, the resistance is still here.

Understanding the Stigma Around Suicide

There's so many factors that are behind [the stigma]. One of the factors I have been seeing more is the religious risk factor. And people don't always look at religion as a risk factor. But you got to realize that a lot of times people feel like they are forsaking their higher power by going to seek help for their mental wellness, or people feel like [they’ll] pray about it and leave it alone.

Or there is a stigma attached to it from religious leaders, [who are] telling people, “Listen, you don't need it; therapy’s a fad, or therapy is something that everybody's on. But as long as you have Jesus, as long as you pray to God, you will be OK.”

There’s also [this]: What goes on in the house stays in house, like nobody else should know your problems. Or we’ll be able to figure it out in-house, versus bringing somebody else in here to tell me about my issues.

I think another part that [factors] in, especially when I see Black families as clients, is that they are thinking that therapy is this big thing that is not right. They always see it as really dramatic on TV, but once they come into my office, or the office spaces I occupy, then it's like, “Oh, this wasn't what I thought it was going to be.”

And then, there are not a lot of culturally competent therapists out there. So if I'm Black, then do I trust sitting in front of a white therapist? Will a white therapist be able to relate to my issues and really understand what I'm going through?

Becoming a Trusted Resource in Philadelphia

I think when people see the work that we've done, we've been consistent over the years. So that if somebody were to check the records and say, “Well, why would I trust her?” they can look back on it and know I’ve had my program for this amount of years; I went back to school to get my degrees. So I can know what I'm really talking about — because a lot of people can make a video about mental wellness and self-care and coping skills.

But if I take you off the deep end, can I bring you back to shore? Do I have the tools to bring you back to shore? I think that's what separates me from a lot of people. I went back and got the education to back up the work I've been doing. Now we’re doing greater work.

Facing Community Response

It's been mostly positive. Every time we go somewhere, they say they weren't expecting to get what they got. I think it's mostly because a lot of times people don't want to have these hard conversations. They trust me enough to have the hard conversations, and to leave the people with something that's going to empower them, not leave them feeling down after a program, or after an assembly, or after a workshop.

Dealing with Pushback

One time I was doing a presentation at a school within a church, and there was pushback that day. We were talking about suicide. And this lady interrupted the presentation and was like, “Oh, you’re going to hell if you commit suicide, so just [to] let all you kids know right now, you're going to hell.”

Now I'm a licensed minister, too. And I'm liberal. I had to tell her, “No.” So we had a little back and forth conversation about that. But other than that, nobody has pushed back on what I've been teaching, or what's been taught, or what information has come through Dare 2 Hope.

Changes in Views of Suicide

When I first started Dare 2 Hope, nobody was really talking about suicide. It was still hush-hush. I remember getting calls to come to schools, and the principals would be whispering, “Can you come talk to my kids about suicide?” And I'm like, "Why are you whispering about it?" Why are we scared to talk about suicide out loud, upfront? And it bothered me, because so many people were losing their lives, or losing the battle to mental illness.

From the beginning — and I've been doing Dare 2 Hope for almost 10 years — I've seen the transition of people. Now [they’re] openly talking about their mental wellness, talking about why it's important to take care of your mind the way you take care of your body. So I think the stigma has kind of been — I don't want to say disappearing — but easing up a little bit.

Again, the harder work is with the older adults. The millennials get it, the Gen Zs get it. But I think the issue is still on those traditional, older adults who don't really accept the fact that they may have something going on in their minds that needs to be checked out. But I'm telling you, it definitely has been a shift in the right direction, as far as people caring about themselves. That includes their mental health, too.

Attitudes in Philadelphia versus the Suburbs

I think [suicide] has always been at the forefront in the suburbs. For the urbanized area, the North Phillys, the South Phillys, I think that it hasn't been touched on enough yet. I think we’re headed in the right direction.

But I think it has always been normalized in the suburbs. If we could just be honest, within white families and with white people, I think it's always been normalized, like therapy is something that just happened. Whereas in Black families, it's like, “Therapy, we don’t do that.”

Demographic Differences

Like I said across the board, millennials get it. I don't think a [college] degree makes a difference. I know people with degrees and people without them, and mental health is very important to them. I think it's generational, not educational.

Conversations with Colleagues in Other Big Cities

The same stuff that we deal with here is what people are dealing with other places. It is not really a difference, even when you look at the trauma from the crime. There’s crime happening in Philly, there’s crime happening in Chicago, there’s crime happening Baltimore, there’s crime happening in Florida. So the stuff our kids are facing is really the same across the board. [It’s] just coming up with different ways and different approaches to solving it.

I'm a solution-focused therapist, so I'm a person who’s going to use cognitive behavioral thinking. Let’s [understand] your mind, let’s change your behavior, but also how can we fix this? When I talk to my colleagues in other areas, it's the same approach: How do we get to the bottom of what is bothering or plaguing our kids in urban communities?

Coming Together to Find Solutions

We do many think tanks, and we get together and discuss cases, more so to try to get to the root [of the problem]. So we look at patterns of families.

If we see that this is a pattern, then how do we then prevent stuff from happening? If I know this family has generations of people not graduating from high school, or people not being able to get into the workforce and get good paying jobs, how do we prevent it? If this new baby's coming, at what age do we stop and prevent this? Where do we intervene in this family to prevent this person from going down the same path that the last two generations have gone down?

That's the work I love to do, when we look at patterns and try to figure out how we stop it from happening again and coming up with plans.

Biggest Challenges On the Horizon

Just finding the funding is always our biggest goal, because we need the money to continue to work.

And like I said, the stigma is breaking; people are investing more money in mental health and looking at mental health as an issue. I remember a couple years ago, I applied for a grant from the city to bring mental health therapists to the urban communities, and I didn't get the grant.

But this year, I put in [a grant application] because people have been focusing on mental health. Once in a while, cases have made national news. So I think that with the year that passed, people understand that if we get people's mental health regulated, a lot of things will change in the city.

Greatest Signs of Hope  

We work in what some would call the worst schools in the city. We go to schools where kids have been kicked out of the public school system, and now are in an alternative school. But when I see a kid come in, in the beginning of the six weeks, all over the place, and then by week two, or week three, they’re working through whatever project we're working on in that particular week, and their attitude is starting to shift, they're processing their emotions better, they're communicating better, they're behaving better — that's the highlight for me.

Even with my clients, when I see them doing their homework and coming back a month from the time we start the session, and I can see the progress, that's what makes me want to continue my work, because we know what we're teaching is changing lives.

In Rural Wisconsin, It’s Time to Build for the Future

by Donna Kallner June 21, 2021 Print

When my parents were in assisted living in Southwest Florida, I became friends with one of their young caregivers. This urban twenty-something was curious about what it’s like to live where it snows as much as it does in rural northern Wisconsin. Like many policymakers, she really had no idea what it’s like to live in an area that doesn’t even have cable TV. I never got around to telling her about wells and septic systems. But I made sure she learned you never choose “shortest route” on your GPS when you’re out in the sticks.

Out here, what looks like a road on Google Maps can fool you. A U.S. Forest Service road near my house (really a snowmobile trail) comes up as a route of travel to a nearby lake. It’s doable part of the year, maybe, with four-wheel drive and high clearance. It’s also just about impossible to reach a cell tower if you get stuck and need to call for a tow.

There’s much about the infrastructure here that seems impossible in the 21st century, until you meet it face to face. In 2009, we still had dial-up internet through the phone line. While researching ways to get faster service, I called our phone company to ask about DSL. After looking at our location on the map, the representative said, “Oh, hon, that area won’t be getting DSL until it’s obsolete everywhere else.”

Managing in a Remote Zone

Last year I worked the census in an area studded with vacation homes filled with people who bugged out of urban neighborhoods to face the pandemic on a lake or in the woods. One lady flagged me down for advice I couldn’t give on where she might go to log into a Zoom meeting. I saw people with cell phones doing business from the ends of driveways — often the only place to get a signal.

We appreciate the economic contributions those non-resident property owners make in an area like this. But I have limited sympathy for their complaints about property taxes and infrastructure deficits at their second home. Many don’t realize that cellular data becomes slower and more unreliable for everyone when they’re Up North. On weekends when summer cottages are filled, demand for bandwidth is so high that I try to finish web-based tasks for my business by 7 a.m.

People are drawn to this area by the same things that create infrastructure challenges. The Wolf River runs through Eastern Langlade County. There are two state highway bridges across the Wolf, and four more county road bridges. The river corridor is lined with state lands. The Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest lies to the east. To the south is the Menominee Indian Reservation. Between tribal lands, river crossings and a whole lot of forest, many places are just plain hard to get to.

Just over Langlade County’s southern border, the northern part of the Menominee Reservation has no power or telephone lines. Just east of here in the National Forest there’s a dead zone where different utilities’ service areas don’t quite meet up. Just north of here, there’s another dead zone where, once again, utilities’ territories stop short of each other. We’re like a Venn diagram without intersections. (Langlade County is classified as Working Class County in the American Communities Project.)

The Evolution of Major Roads

Old Military Road, a major route in rural Wisconsin. Photo courtesy of Donna Kallner.

In an undated typewritten memoir, the late Cap Buettner Sr. shared stories of growing up in this area. When he was about six years old (probably around 1919), he made a trip with his father on what is now the state highway that runs past my house. It was a 40-mile journey through the Menominee Indian Reservation to Shawano to buy a horse. To reach that center of commerce by mid-afternoon, Cap and his dad left at 3 a.m. in a buggy pulled by one horse. With the second horse in harness they made better time on the trip home.

That route was known as the Military Road before it came to be called State Highway 55. In 1863, Congress funded construction of a road to connect Green Bay, Wisconsin; and Copper Harbor, Michigan. Like the interstate highway system a century later, the Military Road was meant in part to enable rapid movement of troops for civil defense. Buettner wrote that the government contracted to have the road cut 25 feet wide. They laid logs perpendicular to the roadway in swampy areas, making what is commonly called a corduroy road, to make it usable for horses and wagons hauling supplies.

According to historian Heather Cox Richardson, President Abraham Lincoln believed government should develop the country’s infrastructure. Republican legislators supported imposing the first national taxes — including an income tax — to help fund projects that would benefit ordinary people. It's the same social contract that has spurred dam projects, the interstate highway system, and rural electrification.

The Military Road is not as rough as a corduroy road now — mostly — but it's still narrow and curvy. And it's still an important route for tourists, cottage folk, people who commute to jobs, mail delivery, movement of agricultural equipment and products, transport of goods and supplies, and people who like to ride motorcycles through the woods on sunny days.

Branching off from that state highway are other state and county highways and township roads. In Wisconsin, secondary roads are pretty darn nice compared to the dusty gravel I grew up on in Indiana. Here, paving is a legacy from the time when small farms were spread out all over the Dairy State. Milk trucks had to get through in every kind of weather to move that perishable product to market. But those small dairies are fading from the landscape faster than Wisconsin's Progressive political tradition. You can kick the can of deferred maintenance down a rural road just so long before that pavement crumbles. Nobody wants to pay the tab but that doesn't stop them asking, "Why can't they fix my road?"

Reimagining Infrastructure

Infrastructure bills didn't make much headway through Congress in the last administration. I'd like to feel more optimistic about the current administration's ability to garner bipartisan support for an infrastructure bill that could truly meet the needs of rural areas. But I fear that won't happen if opponents continue to claim that "infrastructure" means roads and bridges and nothing more.

Not that our roads and bridges don't need some attention. Wisconsin's roads are becoming like a school assignment that would be graded A+ if only it were completed on time. Not getting things done in a timely fashion knocks down the grade. The American Society of Civil Engineers assesses the condition and performance of 17 major infrastructure categories every four years. In their 2021 report, Wisconsin's overall grade was a solid C. For roads alone it was D+.

In most rural areas we already foot the bill for what would be public utilities in more populated areas — things like water wells and septic systems. If, for example, access to high-speed internet is eliminated from road-and-bridge-centric infrastructure policy, it will only be available in rural areas to those willing and able to pay premium prices for mediocre service. Even then you may not get service where there aren't enough addresses in close proximity to make installation profitable for a provider.

When a natural gas pipeline went through this area, it stopped short of my address because there weren't enough potential customers to make further progress profitable. Same story on fiber optic for high-speed internet that was installed with grant money to a church camp to the north: With so few homes between where it turned north and the reservation to the south, it won't come my way until some infrastructure program helps pick up the tab.

We've been hearing for the past 10 years that a rural broadband initiative will come to our area soon. I think they programmed "shortest route" into their GPS and got stuck on a forest road because it sure hasn't arrived.

Maybe that's not the worst thing if it inspires new and creative approaches to infrastructure challenges that can't be solved with old ideas about what infrastructure means. For example, another county in northern Wisconsin is testing a system for delivering high-speed internet with tethered drone platforms instead of traditional tower-based equipment. "The whole concept is we can now do dynamic networks as needed," said Wisconsin TeleLift CEO Scott Williams. "We don't replace infrastructure. We're replacing the mindset that you have to have permanent infrastructure."

I can't quite wrap my head around how that mindset might translate to roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. But I appreciate that elements of President Biden's proposed plan try to reimagine how we might meet more than just our most immediate needs. Our future could be as different from life now as now is from the time when Cap Buettner Sr. and his dad took that buggy trip down the Military Road to buy a horse. To me, it seems like high time we come together again and commit to building for the common good — including in rural areas.

Donna Kallner is a folk artist and writer from rural northern Wisconsin.

As Covid-19 Recedes, an Unequal Economic Recovery Takes Shape Across America

by Dante Chinni June 10, 2021 Print

Unemployment data confirm that, indeed, there is a Covid-19 economic recovery working its way through all the types in the American Communities Project. But that recovery is not equal. The data suggest rural places are coming back sooner, and there is still a lot of room for recovery in the nation’s most urban places in particular.

From December to the end of April, as vaccinations ramped up, unemployment fell in nearly all of the ACP’s 15 community types — Native American Lands were the one exception. But going back over a longer period of time to the beginning of the pandemic, unemployment is still above where it was in February 2020 in nearly all the types. It is still particularly high in the Big Cities and Urban Suburbs.

Furthermore, when you alter the lens to look at labor force participation, some communities are seeing a slower return to work than others. Three communities stand out: the Urban Suburbs, Middle Suburbs, and Rural Middle America.

The data, from the latest Local Area Unemployment Statistics update, only go through April and the employment landscape is changing rapidly. However, the ACP’s analysis offers insights into how and where the economy is making the biggest strides in returning to “normal.”

The Good News in Unemployment

Overall, seven of the 15 community types in the ACP have April unemployment rates of 5% or less, and most of those communities are somewhat rural to sparsely populated — LDS Enclaves, Aging Farmlands, Evangelical Hubs, College Towns, Rural Middle America, Exurbs, and Working Class Country.

The Exurbs stand out as different from the rest of those places because of their higher college-education rates and population density. But there is one common trait all those communities share: On the whole they are not racially or ethnically diverse. In each of the seven types, the median county is at least 80% white and non-Hispanic.

When you look at more racially and ethnically diverse rural places in the ACP, the unemployment rate was higher, in some places much higher. In the African American South, the unemployment rate was 5.6%, but in Hispanic Centers and Native American Lands, the rate was above 8% — 8.4% and 8.7%, respectively.

In some ways, those numbers suggest a return to “normal,” in that those communities of color had higher unemployment rates even before the pandemic. But the numbers are also a signal to proceed with caution. For all the talk of “jobs returning” and perhaps less need for economic aid, unemployment rates above 8% can cause real hardship. It means in those communities alone, there are nearly 900,000 people who are looking for a job and can’t find one.

And notably, the most urban community types in the ACP — the Big Cities and Urban Suburbs — have unemployment rates above 5%. That’s important because those 153 counties hold roughly half of the nation’s population and, as a group, they usually sit at or below the national unemployment figure. They drive the U.S. economy. It’s going to be nearly impossible for the nation to see a full economic recovery without those places improving.

Urban Areas Hit Harder in Long-Term Unemployment Changes

The problems in the nation’s more urban areas look more problematic when you consider where the unemployment rate in those places stood before the pandemic. The increase in the unemployment rate from February 2020 to April 2021 is highest in the Big Cities and Urban Suburbs.

The figure is 2.4 points higher in the Urban Suburbs and a massive 3.7 points higher in the Big City counties. There are currently more than 5 million people who are unemployed in those counties. If their unemployment rates were at their pre-pandemic levels, there would be about 2.6 million unemployed in them.

Why are the numbers so high? A number of factors could be at play. Many urban schools shifted to remote learning in the pandemic and that meant parents often had to stay home to watch children. But the bigger impact likely came from the change in office work culture and business travel in the pandemic that hit the service sector.

Big Cities and Urban Suburbs are home to a lot of office buildings and office jobs. When that work got shifted to home, it meant there was less need for restaurants and cafés to serve those offices. The pandemic also meant less business travel, which in turn meant fewer hotel stays and fewer meals out.

The numbers suggest that a full “turn around” in these locales may not be possible until workers are back in their offices and traveling again. And there are questions about what that workplace return could look like. Many employers are discussing only partial office returns at least through the end of 2021. That may mean a need for fewer service employees in the establishments that serve them.

A few rural locations stood out in the data for actually having slightly lower unemployment rates in April 2021 than they did in February 2020 — Aging Farmlands and Working Class Country. But these county-level data are “not seasonally adjusted” and some of those improvements may be due to those rural communities having different employment patterns in the spring than they do in the winter. At the very least, the figures suggest those communities are closer to their pre-pandemic norms.

Labor Force Participation

One other factor that’s going to have to change for the nation to get back on track economically: the number of Americans actively searching for a job, the labor force participation number. In April 2021, the number was roughly 160 million people. That was 3.8 million below the number in February 2020.

The labor force participation number is what is used to calculate the unemployment rate. So, in a sense, the current unemployment rate is probably understating the number of people who are actually out of work. Many Americans may simply have stopped looking for a job because there weren’t positions available for them — jobs they have the training and skills to perform.

But in the ACP, a few community types stand out for their change in labor force participation since the beginning of the pandemic.

The Urban Suburbs, Middle Suburbs, and Rural Middle America have all seen declines of 3% or more in labor force participation since the pandemic began. In total, 1.8 million fewer people were looking for jobs in those communities in April 2021 than in February 2020. The biggest drop came in the densely populated Urban Suburbs, where the number was 1.2 million lower.

The Urban Suburbs and Middle Suburbs share some common traits. They are often located in and around major metros. And the April data showed their labor force participation numbers actually shrunk slightly between December and April. That may have something to do with people getting temporary jobs during the holiday season in those big metros.

Rural Middle America is different. Those communities tend to be based around small towns. Even though their labor force participation numbers are still down sharply from pre-pandemic levels, the latest months (from December to April) show a slight increase, suggesting things are improving in these places.

And, again, rural communities seem to be showing a bigger bounce back. Graying America and Aging Farmlands are only showing small declines in labor force participation between February 2020 and April 2021, and the growing LDS Enclaves actually showed an increase.

The ACP will dive into these numbers again in a few months. Summer travel, which looks as though it will be heavily based in the United States due to Covid-19, may provide an extra kick to these some of the rural communities, which draw vacationers. Graying America — in the Upper Midwest, on the East and West Coasts, and in the Mountain West — may be particularly well-positioned.

The Politics of Covid

Throughout the pandemic, Covid-19 has often been viewed through a political frame. If one brings that view to the recovery, it is fair to say that, at the moment, communities that voted for former President Donald Trump are actually doing fairly well.

Of the seven community types with an unemployment rate below 5%, six voted for Trump in 2020. Meanwhile, the communities that have seen the biggest increases in unemployment since the pandemic began, the Urban Suburbs and Big Cities, went for President Joe Biden by large margins.

Ultimately, those differences are less about politics than they are about broader economic and population patterns. However, this should serve as a reminder in these hyper-partisan times that Washington’s pandemic policy does not seem to follow simple blue/red — reward/punish lines.

Covid Crisis Pushes Hispanic Center Toward a Futuristic Economy

by Ari Pinkus June 01, 2021 Print

Williams Lake in the Taos Ski Valley. Photo by Sean McClintock.

Index of Taos County, New Mexico
An Overview of Taos County, Then and Now
Taos County as a Hispanic Center
Tackling Compounding Crises in New Disaster Group
Technology’s Role in Transforming Taos
Small Business Owners Grapple with Fear and Uncertainty
New Views of Education and Workforce Development

 

When Covid-19 hit the United States last spring, no place escaped its impacts, but some communities were hit very hard — particularly ones that rely on tourism to thrive, such as Taos County, New Mexico. Like the rest of the country, Taos County’s unemployment rate spiked in April, to 16.5%, but then experienced a second larger hit in July, reaching a rate of 18%. And the hardship happened in a community that’s never fully recovered from the Great Recession.

But the last year has not been a time of sinking into despair for Taos County. Rather, it has been a time to imagine what’s next and for residents to take up key questions, including: How can Taos grow beyond the tourism industry, without abandoning it? How can closing technological and educational inequities and opening more workforce development options improve its trajectory? This is work grounded in the community’s complex racial and ethnic identity, its social challenges, and its cornerstone position in the American landscape.

An Overview of Taos County, Then and Now

While the Rio Grande River and its tributaries are essential features of Taos County — which covers 2,204 square miles in northern New Mexico’s high desert — for centuries populations in these parts have relied on their ingenuity to manage access to water, an irregular resource in the North American West. The need for water, considered a life force for survival and not a commodity, impelled the creation of a commons. Residents managed the unique acequia system, irrigation canals designed to share water for agriculture in an arid land.

Today, Taos County (pop. 32,723) remains rural, with both small-town and frontier attributes. The acequia culture has evolved; 55 now operate, each run by a water sheriff (the mayordomo) and three commissioners, making the acequia the smallest unit of democratic governance in the U.S. At the same time, daily business transactions often rest on old familial and cultural connections.

In some ways, Taos County, characterized as a Hispanic Center, holds an uneasy coexistence of three major cultures — Pueblo, Spanish, and Anglo. Populations have been trading; fighting; and negotiating land disputes, territorial sovereignty, and socioeconomic challenges for hundreds of years. The array of native tribes and the intermixing among groups are key to this diverse cultural history. For example, Indo-Hispano people included genízaros (Native Americans taken into Hispano villages as indentured servants through war or ransom); mestizos (a term from the colonial era for people of mixed race, especially of Spanish and indigenous descent); and mexicanos.

The Taos Valley has always been a nexus for trade, travel, and settlement, according to the Town of Taos. Archeological evidence points to human movement in the Valley for the past 9,000 years, at least. The ancestors of the Pueblo were the first to have settled here, around 900 AD. Taos Pueblo — made up of dwellings and ceremonial buildings — is thought to have been constructed in the 1300s. In the 1500s, Spanish conquistadors colonized this land, where descendants remain to this day. In the 1800s, Mexico ruled for a time after winning independence from Spain, then the United States officially claimed this territory in 1850. Taos became one of the original nine counties in New Mexico Territory in 1852, after which New Mexico became a state in 1912.

The Taos community has shown a continuous ability to reinvent itself — all while being a diverse spiritual center. It’s been an agricultural bastion and in the 1960s New Mexico’s breadbasket. Its art colony has been celebrated for more than a century. The ski business began developing in the 1950s, opening up new residential and commercial opportunities and bringing in more transplants. Amid the growth, poverty has been inescapable. It’s not uncommon to see a multimillion-dollar mansion next to a trailer home.

Recently, the economic disparity between Taos’ year-round businesses and the tourist-based economy has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Local leaders and banks see this in the experiences of small business owners, many of whom cannot obtain financial assistance to maintain their traditional livelihoods, or even afford a home. A community document in March 2021 noted Taos County’s “high levels of poverty, food insecurity, lack of affordable housing, unmet mental health and medical needs, substance abuse, unstable employment and educational inequities.” The county’s median household income stands at $43,000, below the national median, but that belies demographic disparities. For Hispanics, the median income is $33,000; for Native Americans, it’s $30,700; for whites, it’s $47,000.

Three years ago, Taos County was identified as one of America’s most vulnerable communities “most likely to need support before, during, and after a hazardous event,” according to the community document. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control scored Taos 88 out of 100 on the social vulnerability index. That may be partly because trust in institutions and among individuals is low. Consider the 2020 census, for which Taos County had a self-response rate of 37%, compared with the U.S. rate of 67%. This is worrisome because census results help determine how the federal government will distribute money to states and local governments.

If the past year of cascading crises has had any silver lining, it may be that the community has been forced to become more tech savvy, and started openly and communally confronting long-standing social ills, like homelessness and mental health. As Taos County residents continue to tap their inner and communal resources, they are emerging with hard-earned lessons from the pandemic to reimagine their community and work together once more.

Taos County as a Hispanic Center

Taos County is 57% Hispanic or Latino, 36% white, and 8% American Indian and Alaskan Native, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau statistics. The clearest way Taos stands out from Hispanic Centers across the U.S. is its older population: 28% of Taos County residents are 65 years and older, whereas the Hispanic Centers’ median 65-and-older population stands at 15%.

In many other ways, Taos is similar to its county type. For instance, like many Hispanic Centers, Taos County is a place of extremes and disparities, as illustrated by traditional health and socioeconomic markers. The premature death rate is 9,600, according to the 2021 County Health Rankings, which includes deaths through 2019. But the outcomes are much better for whites at 6,300 than for Hispanics at 10,800. This compares with Hispanic Centers’ rate at 7,604.

Economic statistics also show the community’s stratification. The income inequality rate is 5.3, that is the ratio of household income at the 80th percentile to income at the 20th percentile. That’s higher than the median of Hispanic Centers, which is 4.4. The top performing U.S. counties have a rate of 3.7.

Many residents live in substandard housing conditions. In fact, 17% have at least one of four housing problems: overcrowding, high housing costs, lack of kitchen facilities, or lack of plumbing facilities. And 12% of residents face a severe housing cost burden, spending 50% or more of their household income on housing. That’s similar to Hispanic Centers, where 16% experience severe housing problems, and 10% have a severe housing cost burden.

Family life is filled with social and economic challenges. The child poverty rate for the whole county is 25%, but this rate differs markedly by race and ethnicity, as shown in the chart below. The percentage of children in one-parent homes stands at 39%, which is much higher than the 25% median for Hispanic Centers.

Education, too, is an area with room for improvement. While 90% complete high school, just 74% graduate in four years with their ninth-grade cohort. A majority, 59%, of adults ages 25 to 44 have some college experience. That compares favorably to Hispanic Centers, where it’s 47%. However, in the top performing counties, 73% of adults have some college experience.

Tackling Compounding Crises in New Disaster Group

Because Taos County is so close to affluent Santa Fe, a false perception circulates that it’s well-off. The truth: After the 2008-09 Great Recession, it took Taos about five years to start crawling out of hardship, residents say. Through the suffering, they’ve learned they need to help themselves in times of crisis.

So when New Mexico declared a state of emergency because of Covid-19 in March 2020, a group of public and private sector community leaders in Taos responded in a novel way for the area: They formed the Enchanted Circle Community Organizations Active in Disaster. COAD is a well-regarded leadership model in disaster management, operating with all partner organizations as equals.

Anchor COAD entities include Kit Carson Electric Cooperative, Holy Cross Hospital, and the Taos Community Foundation. Before the COAD, community leaders worked in their silos and didn’t communicate regularly, says the Foundation’s Executive Director Lisa O’Brien. This time, they’ve convened weekly virtual meetings, combining sweat equity and pooling their organizations’ resources. They started with the need for testing and social distancing to minimize the virus’s health impacts. As of late May 2021, the county has had 1,687 cases and 53 deaths from Covid-19, according to USA Facts.

Since March 2020, the COAD has also been taking on many social problems: bringing food to residents and helping them pay their bills. O’Brien shares how generous the Taos community has been. Since April 2020, the Taos Community Foundation has raised about $1 million and counting, she says, including more money from new and small donors. The generosity is not just financial. “We built out a volunteer hub that … we anticipate will be in the community for a long time, even once we’re out of pandemic world,” O’Brien says. As of January 2021, 1,011 households in Taos County were in arrears for electricity with a debt of more than $400,000, according to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative’s data.

As the weeks passed, the COAD brought up the community’s high suicide rate and mental health concerns, leading to further difficult discussions about workforce and housing problems, says Luis Reyes, a resident of Taos County, CEO of Kit Carson Electric Cooperative in northern New Mexico, and a key member of the COAD. For some, couch surfing at friends’ homes is a way of life. Reyes pointed out that the group’s pressure is making affordable housing a priority for local leaders and policymakers.

Luis Reyes, CEO of Kit Carson Electric Cooperative. Photo courtesy of Luis Reyes.

“That becomes the silver lining, even though those are negative things, we still have to bring them to light to see if we can make our community stronger,” Reyes stresses.

In the audio clip below, Luis Reyes describes how the COAD has filled a need, helping residents discuss social problems in Taos County and how to move forward collectively.

The group still meets once a week and members would like to continue as the pandemic recedes. “From my perspective, there’s been some just incredible intangible things, which is we’ve had relationship building across the table, and the level of trust has just intensified,” O’Brien says. The COAD is being bolstered by the implementation of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Taos County expects to receive $6.4 million while the town of Taos (the county seat of 5,929 people) expects about $1 million to address community needs.

An underlying theme of these meetings: the need for a more educated workforce and population. The COAD’s focus has spurred a push to hire an Economic Development Coordinator. A key question residents have been wrestling with: “How do you diversify an economy that for over a century has been based on art and tourism?” Reyes says.

Technology’s Role in Transforming Taos

Technology opens possibilities for economic diversification. As the U.S. debates the merits of the Biden administration’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure proposal, which includes broadband internet for rural communities, reliable internet access is both a chief concern and an opportunity in Taos.

Kit Carson Electric Cooperative, which serves Taos, Colfax, and Rio Arriba counties, has been working on this for more than 20 years. In 2005, the cooperative received a grant and the community passed a technology bond to connect Taos schools to high-speed internet via fiber optic cables. In 2009, the community came together to apply for a broadband infrastructure program grant in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The cooperative received $64 million to implement broadband access for its members, and by 2015, had built out the backbone infrastructure, including 4,000 drops, aka, connections.

The area has many physical and cultural challenges to maneuver around, according to Reyes. For one, the terrain makes digging hard. Situated in the Southern Rockies, Taos has an elevation of about 7,000 feet. The Sangre de Cristo range in the eastern part of the county includes mountainsides stretching above 10,000 feet. The building season lasts just six months, from April 1 to October 1. But construction isn’t possible during the irrigation season in May and June because the area floods. Additionally, the Pueblos close for ceremonies and special events, further shortening the time to work.

Through persistence, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative has set up 9,000 connections — offering 1G service to every connection. The cooperative just received $26 million in grants for another 7,000 drops, and this year outfitted 2,500 homes and businesses with internet access, more than usual. Its goal is to connect all 30,000 members to high-speed internet by 2025. A 5G pilot to residences and businesses is in progress; a 10G pilot has been identified.

Notwithstanding the progress, many still don’t have consistent access. U.S. Census 2019 data showed 67% of households in the county with broadband subscriptions. Many families struggle with spottiness or poor bandwidth. The cooperative has created programs for lower-income families, and during Covid-19 provided connections to students and state employees through common drop areas, Reyes says.

The availability of high-speed technology continues to alter the county’s demographics and culture. Broadband allows many out-of-towners to extend their stays. For years, retirees and second-home buyers have flocked to Taos because of its quality of life and outdoor amenities, while many other residents have multigenerational ties to the area. Sometimes newcomers from the East and West Coasts can come on strong and clash with locals’ laid-back natures, residents say. Meanwhile, many youth have been permanently leaving Taos after high school for more opportunity in the big cities.

More recently, remote work has brought new transplant professionals and families from New York, California, Texas, and elsewhere. The trend has continued in 2020 and 2021, with building happening at a frenetic pace, residents report. There’s a strong sense that the remote-working economy is here to stay, and some in Taos are poised to take advantage. Kit Carson Electric Cooperative services doctors based in Dallas and living in Taos part-time who need the higher internet speeds to read X-rays and other high-capacity medical documents. “We can start creating a niche where you can live in Questa, Red River, or any of our communities, where your neighbors are as close or as far as you want them,” Reyes says.

Small Business Owners Grapple with Fear and Uncertainty

In the meantime, the community has been dealing with a grim reality since last March: The festivals, exhibitions, and fairs that typically attract residents and visitors were cancelled; a lot of stores and restaurants closed. “A fun, colorful place to come to visit has turned into a subdued, lackluster, more ordinary town without the same sense of identity,” says Marilynn Nicholson, an entrepreneur and resident of Taos for more than 30 years.

Anwar Kaelin, director of the Small Business Development Center at the University of New Mexico in Taos. Photo courtesy of Anwar Kaelin.

Small businesses have been feeling the pain. Anwar Kaelin, who directs the Small Business Development Center (SBDC) at the University of New Mexico in Taos, plays a key role in Taos County’s entrepreneurial economy — his business advising serving as moral support, a font of knowledge, and a connector to financial resources to keep small business owners going. He estimates that half of businesses are doing much worse than they were pre-pandemic while the other half are doing much better.

During the pandemic, for Covid safety reasons, Kaelin’s face-to-face services through the SBDC have moved exclusively online. Kaelin says an unintended consequence of not being able to meet local clients at their place of business is the inaccessibility of federal disaster assistance programs like the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) by those who need them the most. Kaelin adds that entrepreneurs in low-income and native communities like Taos are not choosing to hold back on applying, but instead face unreasonable disqualifying financial, logistical, and cultural hurdles, including:

  • having difficulty paying their electric and internet bills;
  • being unable to afford new laptops, phones, and routers, capable of image and document editing, voice or video conferencing, and the capacity to use them;
  • lacking the luxury of time to educate themselves on their eligibility of ever-changing programs at the federal, state, and local levels, some driven by agencies and others through lenders; and
  • distrusting systems that have failed them in the past.

Several business owners express gratitude for Kaelin’s help. One of them is Nicholson, who owns a school that offers intensive one week or longer workshops in metalsmithing, lapidary, and jewelry to people worldwide. She also makes her own jewelry and is known as a designer and craftsman working with precious metals and cutting stones for jewelry, which she sells in galleries and exhibits in local museums and shows.

Nicholson describes what the past year has been like. “When Covid closed down everything, I lost my primary income from students who had paid for classes that they intended to travel to Taos to attend during 2020. I also had to turn down inquires for individual study and other workshops during 2020 and 2021 because of restrictions on travel and distancing that make it impossible to personally teach a skilled craft in a confined space. My own jewelry sales have suffered because of the closure of galleries. One of my primary places to show has closed permanently.”

Managing the emotional distress as well as the paperwork has been challenging. “It has been a very difficult, emotional time for many of us who are not used to facing sudden unemployment. Many of us are not familiar with filling out complicated confusing forms and following the instructions that appear to be written in a foreign language. Without help I do not think I could have figured out how to even apply,” Nicholson says.

The abrupt stop has made Nicholson rethink how she wants to live her life, she says. “It has encouraged me to decide to tackle plans that were part of a distant future that may never have happened if I had continued my regular routine. I love my students and teaching, but making my own jewelry was always in the background rather than my primary occupation. I have decided to concentrate on exploring my own ideas while I still have the ability and enthusiasm to design and make jewelry. Stepping back from my everyday routine had given me courage to do something different.”

For those still in business, the modicum of activity hasn’t been without anxiety. When tourists visited Taos in the summer and fall, they did not always follow the state’s mask mandates and social distancing restrictions.

Cherylin Attcity at her Native American gift shop Atcitty’s on Taos Plaza, in Taos, New Mexico. Photo courtesy of Cherylin Attcity.

Cherylin Atcitty, a jewelry-maker who opened her Native American gift shop Atcitty’s on Taos Plaza at the beginning of 2020, used her savings to manage between the lockdowns and postal shipping delays. She was ineligible for the federal relief programs because her business was brand-new, she says. Attcity began to look for other financial support, including grant funding.

Last fall, she received a grant from the Regional Development Corporation in New Mexico to expand, and as a tribal member of the Navajo Nation, she qualified for and received a $5,000 hardship grant for artists. Then, in December, Atcitty contracted the virus, she says. “I didn’t use [the hardship grant] to expand my business, like I wanted to do because I was literally struggling to stay alive at that point…I was afraid of getting intubated because I had a lot of family members who actually died from Covid.”

Atcitty is doing much better now. She was recognized by the Small Business Development Corporation as a star client. “I kept pushing forward. I really wanted to advocate for artists…[my business] was to become really self-sustaining to serve as a template so other people can have their own businesses.” Kaelin helped identify funding opportunities. Atcitty also boosted her skills through webinar trainings, and took a course on growing a business through her church, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. She was awarded a small business stabilization grant from the National Congress of American Indians.

Atcitty says her online ability has improved this year, but she relies on a hotspot for internet access, as grants don’t support this. Atcitty adds that she’s barely been able to sustain her business with paying essential utilities.

Atcitty presses on with purpose and steadfast support. “I really want people to know that the Native Americans are still here and resilient. This business is located right next to the old Kit Carson house. At one point, Kit Carson was instrumental in trying to remove and eradicate the Navajo tribe…Also, my husband [has provided support]. There have been times where there’s been nobody outside and I was crying, and he said, “It’s going to come along. Don’t worry.’”

“The other thing was just trying to not be stagnant, [whether] moving offline, or trying to be more observant of what the customers need and want, and just trying something new all the time.” Next steps, she says, are getting internet access and putting up a website. Longer-term, Attcity seeks to increase her inventory, work with more artists, and help other small businesses.

Some owners, like Ki Holste, pastry chef and co-owner of Sugar Nymphs Bistro, in Peñasco, about 45 minutes from Taos, have seen business pick up this spring. New Mexico has been leading the nation in its vaccination efforts, and as of late May, 44% of Taos County residents have been fully vaccinated. Holste and others are not necessarily requiring vaccines for employees or customers, and vaccine skepticism, sometimes due to misinformation, surfaces in conversations. As entrepreneurs turn toward hiring again, they face the problems they did before the pandemic: employee skill gaps and frequent turnover.

Kamila Rael, who owns European Alterations and Tailoring, in Taos, has also noticed an uptick in shop traffic since early April. She’s applied for a $2,000 grant to develop a website. But the hiatus as well as the difficulty of hiring good workers have made her rethink what’s next. An experienced costume designer who’s worked in the TV/film industry in Los Angeles and for shows in Las Vegas, Rael considers taking her talent to the ballooning film production industry in Santa Fe or Albuquerque, where Netflix and NBCUniversal have announced expansion plans — after her daughter moves to California for college this fall.

New Views of Education and Workforce Development

A pillar institution in the county, the University of New Mexico-Taos is in the midst of a metamorphosis accelerated by the pandemic. In a robust year, about 1,800 students are enrolled in the community college; this year, it’s just under 1,000. The median age of students is 27, and many are single parents, taking one or two courses at a time to complete a degree.
Randi Archuleta, Dean of Instruction and Department Chair of Social and Behavioral Sciences at UNM-Taos. Photo courtesy of Randi Archuleta.

Before the pandemic, 90% of classes were face-to-face and 10% were remote. This past year, the school flipped the ratio. Digital media arts, healthcare, and holistic and healing arts programs (including yoga and integrative medical massage) have been popular during the pandemic, says Randi Archuleta, Dean of Instruction and Department Chair of Social and Behavioral Sciences.

As the school community constructs a new normal, Archuleta wants to focus on lessons learned. She’s realized flexibility and empathy are paramount. “The biggest concern I have had all year is to communicate this with and to faculty. If a student says their internet is down, and you live in Taos, your presumption needs to be that’s absolutely correct. Or you have five people in your household and your calls are dropped,” she says. “This may be true for the faculty as well!”

The school is returning with a hybrid model, giving students choices of face-to-face or remote learning for most subjects. “I think people are going to be a little hesitant to go back to being in physical proximity of each other,” Archuleta says, adding she hopes providing more options will attract students from across the state. She is also pushing for more emphasis on the trades, including culinary arts and hospitality, CDL, general construction and woodworking, and other workforce-related programs.

In the clip below, Randi Archuleta describes how UNM-Taos is working to meet students’ non-academic needs.

Victoria Santistevan Gonzales, Department Chair of Professional Skills and Community Engagement at UNM-Taos. Photo courtesy of Victoria Santistevan Gonzales.

Echoing the Dean is Victoria Santistevan Gonzales, Department Chair of Professional Skills and Community Engagement at UNM’s Taos branch, where she specializes in workforce development and career technical education. She says many students work two or three jobs, perhaps at the ski resorts or restaurants, in addition to child rearing. Gonzales aims to expand students’ options, pointing out that those who are skilled in the trades can earn between $40 and $60 an hour. “I hope to continue providing opportunities for our young people, especially if they are not interested in going on to a four-year education. We want them to stay here in Taos and enroll in courses where they can find gainful employment through the trades or entrepreneurship or the digital economies,” she says.

After a year of remote learning, the UNM-Taos community has just scratched the surface of the digital frontier. Recently, UNM-Taos leaders began revamping the school’s current IT certificate, working with industry experts who are redesigning the curriculum to include stackable credentials and topics such as AI and cloud-based computing. “UNM-Taos intends to provide instruction that will empower students to be on the cutting edge,” Gonzales says. She hopes the school will debut new curriculum by fall 2022.

A Pastor Reflects on Suicide’s Impact in His Quaint Mountain Town — and Offers Hope

by Bryce Maurer April 20, 2021 Print

It was yet again another bright, sunny, and hot day in Redding, California. My pastor from San Diego asked if I would like to pastor a church “somewhere.” I said it was at least worth a conversation. So on a blazing hot day in July, I sat in my gray Chevy truck on my construction site and had a conversation with the Executive Director of ABC Churches with the a/c blasting.

My family and I had no idea things would move so quickly. I was given a list of multiple churches from four different states. My wife and I asked our friends for advice and we prayed together as a family. The key leaders from ABC asked us to at least interview with two or three churches, but it was evident to us that, after council and prayer, we were supposed to move to Livingston, Montana. When we asked our friends, everybody said the exact same thing: “I don’t know why guys, but Livingston was the only place that stood out.”

So we started doing some research about Montana, and Livingston specifically. We quickly found two alarming statistics. The first one was a lack of diversity in the small, sleepy, railroad town of Livingston. According to some recent research, Livingston, Montana, is 91.8% White (Non-Hispanic), 3.76% White (Hispanic), 3.3% (Non-Hispanic), 0.669% Black or African American, and 99.1% of the people are U.S. citizens.

I thought about where I grew up in San Diego, a place full of diversity. I lived in a Mexican barrio, went to school with Vietnamese kids, and one of my best friends was Black. My wife and I had to seriously contemplate if we wanted to raise our then eight-year-old daughter and five-year-old son in such a non-diverse community. This at least gave us cause to pause.

As we continued to look deeper into the culture of this picturesque mountain town, a second concern quickly arose. Montana was in the top three for U.S. states with a high suicide mortality rate, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

After recognizing and considering the risk, our family decided together that this would still be a good move for us. So with great excitement in August 2017, we found ourselves packed up and driving through the beautiful and majestic Yellowstone National Park to reach our new home in Park County. We could make a difference in this quaint mountain town surrounded by the beauty of the Rocky Mountains!

Three months into pastoring my first church, we were hit with the news that a 13-year-old had completed suicide. I was asked to officiate the funeral, but I was not prepared for this task, so soon. Nobody told me to be ready for this reality, or that it would come to pass so quickly. There was no guidebook on how to navigate these difficult scenarios. We discovered through six degrees of separation we were connected with this young boy and his family back in San Diego. It really was hitting close to home now. I still thought we could bring help and healing to a little quaint country town that was hurting.

There are some key reasons why Livingston is so high on the list of suicides. One is elevation. There is a striking similarity with Alaska, Wyoming, and Colorado in this way. The second is Vitamin D deficiency. All those cloudy wintery days block the much-needed sun in our lives, affecting our emotional state.

I quickly realized how slow and depressed I felt here. Then someone asked if I was “taking my Vitamin D supplements.” I never even thought of my deficiency. I got plenty of sunny hot days in San Diego! I consistently started taking my vitamins. It really makes a difference in your emotional state when you make up for the vitamin deficiencies from a lack of sunshine.

Now, I am not a scientist or a doctor. All I know how to do is pray. So after this young man’s funeral, we started meeting on the first Saturday of every month with a group of people from different churches and even those who were unchurched and just prayed at the high school. We’d meet on frigid cold mornings, and we’d meet when it was sunny and beautiful. No cardboard signs, megaphones or soapboxes. We just consistently met and faithfully prayed.

We walked from the high school over to the middle/elementary school and just prayed for God’s love to fill these kids as they walked through the doors. We prayed for the faculty and staff, that they too would experience peace amid the chaos, but also that they would see the signs of distress in the youth.

During the year and a half we prayed, something remarkable transpired — there were no teen suicides! We take absolutely no credit for this but attribute all to the power of prayer.

Then, the story hit way too close to home. Our family found ourselves homeless in a community where housing is hard to come by. Luckily, I was Executive Director at a camp 13 miles down a dirt road with no internet or cable. Our cabin had no running water or a toilet.

We moved into camp on Mother’s Day 2019. It really will prove to be a time we will never forget as a family. In good and scary ways. Four months into our stay at camp I found myself personally battling with suicidal thoughts. It was quite alarming to me. I have a good life, a wonderful family, beautiful kids, and a loving wife. Sure, we lived in a 12’ x 16’ cabin, but it was only temporarily. But I thought of ending my life.

It took me weeks, but I finally revealed to my wife what was going through my head. Then I was faced with this shame that I had even thought about suicide, and the crazy thing is that all I did after that was think about suicide. Not so much the act of completing it or making a plan, but just the fact that I thought about suicide.

Soon, I learned of another factor that contributes to suicidal tendencies here. Isolation. Montana has 6.7 people per square mile while the national average is 88.7. It is hard to believe that we are the most connected ever in the history of mankind, yet more disconnected than ever.

The Positive Influence of LiveWell 49

Now more than ever, my family and I are committed to being a resource to this community and fight against suicide. I have teamed up with LiveWell 49, which focuses on suicide prevention and awareness, including addressing gaps in our communities’ mental health resources.

LiveWell 49 has co-created a messaging campaign with Man Therapy, which takes an honest look at depression, divorce & anxiety in a man’s life through humor so as to cut through the stigmas often associated with mental health. LiveWell 49 offers free QPR classes (Question, Persuade, Refer) to churches, schools, business and other organizations so they can identify the warning signs and help prevent suicides. Knowledge is power!

On April 24, we are teaming up with HelpFest, an amazing nonprofit in Missoula, Montana, whose mission is bringing community unity by connecting people in need to local resources. This all-day event will feature hip hop performers, special guest speakers, and free giveaways.

Staying Healthy and Connected in Community

I will continue to do what I can for myself, my family, and my community. All I know to do is pray. I am committed to working on myself so that I am better equipped to meet the needs of my community. I take my vitamins, and I am sure to get plenty of exercise because a healthy body and mind are connected.

Another proven wellness tool: getting connected. Become involved in a local church that welcomes you, with all your flaws. Something happens in community when you are connected and loved for who you are. Find a local hiking group you can join or a local quilting group if that’s your thing.

Serve your community through a local outreach, food bank, or litter pick up. You’ll feel good about yourself and your community will look better because of YOU. You cannot do this alone, so I for one vow: “I am here for you. I will stand with you. You, my friend, are not alone.”

Bryce Maurer is Lead Pastor of First Baptist Church Livingston in Montana. He can be reached at pastorblivmt@gmail.com.

How Montana’s Despair Deaths Have Intersected with the Pandemic’s Isolation

by Lee Banville April 14, 2021 Print

There have been a lot of anecdotal accounts of suicide and overdose rates surging during the pandemic. From early reports from Colorado about a tripling of the drug overdose rate to reports from Nevada about teen suicides as young people struggle isolated from schools and peers, the stories are compelling, but incomplete.

The American Communities Project worked with the Office of Vital Records at Montana’s Department of Public Health and Human Services to get a statistical understanding of the tumultuous intersection of Covid-19 and deaths of despair. The state allowed the ACP to analyze 197,000 death reports from 2000 through the end of 2020 to identify trends and see what may have happened during the worst of the lockdowns and social isolation.

Overall Findings Reveal Alcohol’s Effect

After examining this statewide data over the 20-year span, 2020 stands out in a few important ways:

    • First, the surge in alcohol-related deaths was significant both in terms of the rate and the actual number of deaths.
    • Secondly, the suicide rate remained largely flat despite the pandemic’s forced isolation and the interruption to normal routines.
    • Drug overdoses appeared to be on the rise, but that is mainly attributable to a spike in April. Since then, the numbers have declined steeply.

Despair Deaths Through the ACP Lens Show Volatility

 

When one examines the same reports through the lens of the American Communities Project, the story of what happened to communities during Covid becomes much less consistent.

As the ACP reported in late March, initial comparison of deaths from Covid and deaths of despair find the mortality rates vary depending on economic and cultural factors.

The same holds true in Montana, but with a sparse population and large counties, data from Montana are often more volatile as individual cases can swing numbers in a county.

But still, sorted through the ACP community types, the portrait of Montana’s fight against deaths of despair during Covid becomes very different.

While deaths of despair appeared to drop toward the end of the year, 2020 still was a record bad year in three different community types in Montana: Native American Lands, Graying America, and Working Class Country. In each of these community types, the deaths of despair rate was up significantly from a five-year average.

Spread throughout the south-central part of the state and along the Rocky Mountain Front, Graying America comprises counties with older populations. Working Class counties are situated in the northwest corner of the state. These two community types saw their deaths of despair soar due to suicide increases. In particular, the three Working Class counties of Lincoln, Sanders, and Mineral saw steep jumps in the number of suicides in 2020.

Although the news was also troubling in Native American counties like Big Horn, Glacier, and Rosebud, where the deaths of despair rates climbed due to major jumps in alcohol-related deaths.

The sparsely populated Aging Farmland counties and College Town communities like Missoula and Bozeman saw either drops or little change during the pandemic.

But even amid these numbers there were promising developments.

Perhaps most striking is the drop in drug overdoses in the state. Overdose rates dropped across all community types, with the steepest drops in rural and Native communities.

Those same communities reported significant declines in suicide rates, as well, with Native counties seeing the largest — a jaw-dropping 49% drop from the five-year average.

It is too early to tell if these mixed experiences during the pandemic will play out similarly nationwide, but in Montana, drug overdoses seemed to drop as the travel limits and lockdowns dragged on and many communities saw a drop in suicide, although there are some troubling exceptions to that trend.

A safety net tested

If there is positive news in the deaths of despair data during the pandemic, it was in the general drop in drug overdoses throughout the state and a targeted drop in suicide rates in large swaths of the rural parts of Montana.

The reasons behind these numbers are more hypotheses than direct evidence but experts point to important changes in healthcare and government policies that greatly improved access throughout rural Montana.

In 2015, the Republican legislature working with a Democratic governor hammered out a deal to expand Medicaid in the state. The program, which was renewed in 2019, offered coverage to at-times nearly 100,000 people in a state with a population just over a million.

For providers in rural and low-income communities this program stabilized care and kept small hospitals and clinics open.

One federally authorized clinic that offers care in Bozeman and more rural communities around it said that before the expansion 56-58% of patients they served were uninsured. That number is now 9-10%.

At the state’s largest healthcare policy nonprofit, Dr. Aaron Wernham said the system kicked in in two important ways in 2020. Ahead of the pandemic, Medicaid expansion enrollment had dwindled to about 80,000.

But then Covid hit.

“When the pandemic hit and people lost their jobs, the program functioned as it’s intended to, which is as a safety net,” Dr. Wernham said. “When something goes wrong in your life, so if you lose your job, you all of a sudden have no income. You’ve lost maybe employer-sponsored insurance. Medicaid picked up the pieces, so we have seen enrollment in the program go back up into the low to mid 90,000 range.”

In addition to the program being there for those with low incomes and for the nearly 17% of Montanans who applied for unemployment during the pandemic, the program also kept the lights on at hospitals.

“Every emergency room in the state, basically any nonprofit hospital, which accounts for almost all of our hospitals, is obligated to see everybody that walks in the door,” he said. “You know [the program] really helped keep hospitals afloat… You can’t check their insurance before you decide if you’re going to take care of their Covid.”

An unlikely hero: the government

With Medicaid offering emergency insurance for those buffeted by the pandemic and reliable payments to hospitals and clinics, the system could stay open, but healthcare providers who were seeing patients also realized that they needed to try to move as much care as possible to telehealth.

“When you talked about rural health everyone was like, ‘well, gosh, telehealth, that’s what you should do. Why are we not doing this’ and it just never took off,” said Scott Malloy, program director at the Montana Healthcare Foundation.

Both the foundation and care providers like Lander Cooney at the Bozeman-based Community Health Partnership clinic said for telehealth to be effective key rules had to change.

Then came what Cooney called “an incredible two weeks in March.”

The federal government made three emergency decisions that changed the face of telehealth, especially in rural states like Montana. First, government insurance programs said they would pay the same amount for telehealth visits as they would for in-person treatment.

But just as important, the government said they would allow patients to receive telehealth treatments in their home and the provider could also be in their home.

That is, before March 2020, telehealth was only covered if the patient came to a clinic. Then they could see a doctor who was in another clinic.

When the laws changed, state governments like Montana worked to quickly draft emergency rules to allow telehealth to move online.

Cooney noted that moving behavioral health to video conferencing or the telephone did two things, it enabled them to offer uninterrupted services to patients and allowed clinics to use the freed up office space to create a safer location for in-person medical care.

She said within a month, nearly 90% of all behavioral health visits were fully online or by phone. The comparison is striking. In 2019, Cooney’s clinics conducts about 100 visits for both medical and mental health visits. By the end of 2020 that number had jumped to more than 15,000.

The clinics are moving toward a return to in-person treatment that never fully went away, but for Community Health Partners, Cooney said, some things have changed.

“Like any business, we need to say, ‘Let’s not go back to the old ways of doing things just because we can. Let’s consider what has changed in the past year,” she said, adding part of that would be to find the “ideal applications of telehealth.”

Screening via screens

This shift to telehealth was happening at a time when the state has also been expanding what the Montana Healthcare Foundation calls behavioral health screening.

Dr. Wernham pointed to the fact that years ago screening blood pressure was not the norm and that lack of screening prompted a “catastrophe” in terms of cardiovascular disease and death.

“We think of drug use and alcohol as being the same thing. You can’t look at someone to know if they’re depressed. You can’t look at someone and know if they are suicidal. You can’t look at someone to know if they’re addicted,” Dr. Wernham said, adding, “so you need to screen for those things just the way we screen for blood pressure, and if you’re not doing that, you know you’re at risk of missing a lethal condition.”

Most of those clinics and hospitals accepting Medicaid and other insurance have expanded the use of behavioral screening to identify drug and alcohol issues as well as depression. The concept, called integrated behavioral health, adds these checks to normal medical visits, not just those seeking some type of mental health assistance.

“By expanding telehealth access, we were more able to reach people in crisis in rural areas, at the same time as having more practices in rural areas now engaged in screening everybody that comes in, through their doors … for depression,” Dr. Wernham said.

This combination of integrated behavioral screening and telehealth is not the sole reason for drops in drug overdoses or suicide rates going down in rural places, but they have clearly helped communities in Montana weather the pandemic. It’s important to note that these changes rely on emergency declarations from federal and state governments.

As the pandemic eases, questions remain about pay parity and telehealth. Communities in far-flung Montana may be deeply affected by the result of these conversations and the continued availability of safety nets like Medicaid when it comes up for renewal in 2025.

Associate Professor Lee Banville joined the University of Montana faculty in 2009 after 13 years at PBS NewsHour, where he was editor-in-chief of the Online NewsHour.

How Covid-19 and Deaths of Despair Combine to Affect Communities

by Dante Chinni March 24, 2021 Print

The Covid-19 pandemic has torn through the United States in the last 12 months, leaving more than half a million dead and the nation’s economy in tatters, but the virus didn’t arrive on a blank slate. Long before Covid, the Deaths of Despair epidemic was already taking a massive toll in communities of different kinds across the country.

Over the past year, the intersection of those two challenges has created a complicated mix of impacts across county types in the American Communities Project. Some places hit hard by Deaths of Despair seem better equipped to handle the challenges of Covid. Other places that have not seen so many Deaths of Despair have seen higher death rates from the virus.

But in a larger sense, the mortality data for the two national epidemics show how local economic and cultural factors play large roles in communities’ overall health.

This report on Deaths of Despair and Covid-19 is the latest in a series of analyses from the American Communities Project focused on Deaths of Despair, funded by the Arthur Blank Family Foundation. Last summer, the ACP looked at Deaths of Despair across our 15 community types. In the fall, Ray Suarez traveled to Montana to explore the issue on the ground. Also working with the ACP is the Center on Rural Innovation, which gathers and analyzes these data points and builds visualizations.

A year in, the Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing and still relatively new, and gathering data on the virus is not easy. Numbers usually lag real time. That’s also true for the data on Deaths of Despair, which come from national analyses of death certificate data to determine causes of death. But comparing what we know about the geographic footprints of both diseases to the ACP 15 county types, four major points emerge in the data.

  • There is a collection of communities with low Deaths of Despair rates, but high Covid-19 death rates. And those communities are among the more rural places in the ACP: Aging Farmlands, Hispanic Centers, and the African American South.
  • Some types of communities have lower death rates for both epidemics. Those types, the Exurbs and Urban Suburbs, have built in economic advantages that seem to insulate them from both challenges.
  • There seem to be advantages in communities built around youth and structure, enabling them to withstand Covid. Military Posts, College Towns, and LDS Enclaves are among the lowest on Covid death list even though they largely sit in the middle of the pack on the Deaths of Despair list.
  • Native American Lands stand alone in being hit especially hard by both epidemics.

Many reasons drive those differences. As the ACP often notes, communities are more than just a collection of people. They take the characteristics of the people who live in them. Some are wealthy and some are not. Some are more religious than others. Some are full of people who can transport their work to a home office; some rely on having workplaces where people can punch the clock. Those cultural factors, along with general race and age demographics, are fundamental to understanding their Deaths of Despair and Covid numbers.

The Big Picture in the Data

To analyze the impacts of Covid and Deaths of Despair, we measured the mortality rate for each. While the number of “cases” matters for Covid, Deaths of Despair is ultimately a measure of mortality, so we chose that measure for Covid as well. And when you look at heat maps and charts for each, clear patterns emerge.

Deaths of Despair (DoD) v. Covid-19 Death Rates

To the north, counties in New Hampshire, Vermont, and upstate New York contain a collection of counties where Deaths of Despair are high while Covid death numbers are lower. Many of these communities are part of Graying America, where this pattern is common. Graying America counties rank second in Deaths of Despair, but 11th for Covid deaths.

Across the Southeast, particularly in the African American South, you can see the counties with fewer Deaths of Despair, but more deaths from Covid. In Appalachia — West Virginia, southern Ohio, and eastern Kentucky — the counties of Working Class Country show Deaths of Despair that are much higher than average and Covid deaths that are lower than average.

And throughout the Mountain West, Native American Land communities stand out for spiking on both measures.

The chart below translates those maps into rates by ACP type. On it, you can see the key findings of this report in a graphic form, the places that struggle and those that do well on each data point. (Note that on the map there are many small-population counties where we could not plot Deaths of Despair due to privacy concerns. However, the chart below contains the rates for all deaths in all communities, even those we cannot map.)

Where Deaths of Despair and Covid Have an Inverse Relationship

One of the most surprising findings when comparing Deaths of Despair and Covid data comes when focusing on three diverse county types with small median populations: Aging Farmlands, the African American South, and Hispanic Centers. All are in the bottom third for Deaths of Despair, but they are very high for Covid, Nos. 2, 3, and 4, respectively.

The median populations for all three county types are under 20,000. It’s 17,700 in Hispanic Centers, 15,300 in the African American South, and just 2,800 in Aging Farmlands. Their small sizes would seem to correlate with higher rates of Deaths of Despair, which can be driven by loneliness. On the other hand, this shared characteristic could help combat Covid-19, because rural, sparsely-populated communities seem to have an advantage for social distancing.

But the figures show opposite correlations. These community types do better than would be expected with Deaths of Despair and worse than might be expected on Covid. Why? One possible factor: Community ties that help prevent Deaths of Despair may contribute to higher Covid mortality.

These communities have additional factors that lead to enhanced cohesiveness. In Hispanic Centers, a common ethnicity among a large part of the population helps build bonds. In the African American South, there can often be sharp racial divides between Blacks and whites, but also a support network among Black friends and neighbors. Aging Farmlands, while rural and remote, often have strong individual identities.

Beyond those factors, religious adherence may play a big role in these three kinds of communities. All are among the top five community types in adherents per 1,000 population — more than 50% of people in each community type are active members of a religious congregation, according to the Association of Religion Data Archive.

There are additional factors in these communities, of course, particularly the LDS Enclaves, which are discussed later in this report. But higher levels of religious adherence is an important element in these places.

Not only do churches create social connections in communities, but they also give congregants a larger sense of meaning in life. That can be a powerful one-two punch that offers purpose and belonging. Those thoughts and connections can be a bulwark against Deaths of Despair. Higher rates of religious adherence often signal deeper and broader community connections. For example, a group of people know each other in multiple ways, from the neighborhood and from the pews.

Those tight bonds can pose a problem during Covid. Throughout 2020, funerals turned out to be super-spreader events, and that took a large toll on communities with deeper religious connections. In the virus’s early days, two funerals in Albany, Georgia, in the African American South, turned the town into a “hotspot” in part because many friends, neighbors, and fellow congregants gathered to say goodbye. The stories were similar around the country, particularly in rural, close-knit communities.

To be clear, these communities are home to other health dynamics that push up their Covid numbers: large elderly populations (Aging Farmlands), high diabetes rates (the African American South), and high uninsured rates (Hispanic Centers). But the combination of health and social factors is likely behind the inverse correlations between Deaths of Despair and Covid mortality.

Places that Hold Distinct Advantages

While some communities stand on opposite ends of the most dire consequences of Deaths of Despair and Covid, a few sit on the low end of both epidemics. Urban Suburbs and Exurbs hold socioeconomic advantages over most of the other community types on a broad list of measures, and those advantages extend to both epidemics.  The two community types fall in the bottom half for deaths from Covid and the bottom third for Deaths of Despair.

Two advantages of the Urban Suburbs and Exurbs: health insurance numbers (they have low uninsured rates for adults) and median household income (they rank first and second in the ACP). Both suburban community types have larger numbers of people with college degrees and lower unemployment rates than other types.

Where Deaths of Despair are concerned, those kinds of numbers suggest some insulation from the worst outcomes. While they don’t address deeper community ties, friendship, or loneliness, they at least suggest communities where people are economically comfortable, with resources and opportunities.

However, the Urban Suburbs and Exurbs are two of the ACP’s more populous community types. Along with Big Cities and Middle Suburbs, they are the only community types where the median populations are above 100,000. And that kind of population density would seem to be a negative during the Covid-19 pandemic. So why are their figures so low? They are full of people who had jobs that could be made into “remote work.”

A lot of jobs moved into home offices (or kitchens or living rooms) during Covid, but the greatest number of shifts happened in the nation’s most populous counties. On the whole, 31% of American adults, some 77 million people, had their jobs shift to working from home in 2020 due to Covid, according to data from MRI-Simmons, a consumer research firm. But three-quarters of those job shifts, encompassing 59 million people, happened in the nation’s largest counties. The work-from-home numbers got smaller as the counties got more rural.

Those counties, “A and B Counties” in the demographic breakdown, hold the majority of the Urban Suburbs and Exurbs. And when you consider the higher incomes and education levels in both community types, you can see how they were especially protected from the worst parts of the Covid-19 pandemic: fewer interactions in closed spaces with non-family members. And as business travel was pared back, they were spared from exposure they might have had in airports or on planes.

In short, happiness and well-being aren’t all about economic prosperity, but there are people and communities that hold advantages in 21st-century America. The Urban Suburbs and Exurbs have some economic and social factors in their favor that protect against a range of challenges, including Deaths of Despair and Covid.

The Power of Youth and Organization

Three ACP types stand out for having low rates of Covid deaths, ranking in the bottom third, but sitting largely the middle of the pack for Deaths of Despair. College Towns, LDS Enclaves, and Military Posts are an odd mix in some ways. LDS Enclaves have the highest percentage of religious adherents in the ACP, while College Towns and Military Posts are near the bottom. College Towns lean left politically, while the other communities are quite conservative. Military Posts often feature bases where groups of people work in close quarters, while LDS Enclaves are usually rural.

But there are two larger organizing principles for all three types.

First, all these communities have an advantage during the Covid pandemic because of their relative youth. They have the largest percentage of population in the 18- to 24-year-old range. The three are among the top four ACP types for population in 18- to 39-year-old range. (The other is Hispanic Centers.)

Advanced age is one of the biggest comorbidity factors for Covid, and these three community types have larger, younger, and more vital populations than most others. More than 7% of  College Towns are 18 to 39. This youth cohort makes up 6.7% in the LDS Enclaves and 6.4% in the Military Posts. That means even if there is more virus spread — which we have seen in the LDS communities and in some College Towns — the impacts are often not severe because the population is less susceptible.

But that doesn’t explain all the differences for these communities. Their Covid death rates are much lower than the nation as a whole — less than 120 per 100,000 people. Other community types that also hold larger shares of young people have much higher Covid death rates. More than 6% of the population in Big Cities and Hispanic Centers fall into the 18-to-39 age group, and their Covid death rates are 165 and 197 per 100,000, respectively.

What other factors might be in play?

A second commonality of these community types: All are tied to a larger community structure that helps organize them. LDS Enclaves are usually deeply connected to the Mormon Church. In many of these communities, the secular leadership is full of church members, which creates a deeper sense of working together. College Towns are often strongly tied to an institution of higher learning — not just students, but professors and other employees as well. This helps create more of a shared purpose or identity. And, of course, Military Posts are not only full of soldiers, but often veterans and contractors who are part of a larger connected atmosphere.

It may be that those kinds of bonds help foster a mission to “work together” to get control of the Covid pandemic. Mitigation approaches like mask mandates might be more easily accepted in communities where people are all on the same page. Leadership matters in any pandemic, but it helps to have populations that are prepared to follow. The structure baked into these communities may make an important difference.

A Double Hit in Native American Lands

A particularly sobering finding in the ACP’s analysis: the deep challenges in the counties we call Native American Lands. As we noted in our first report, those 43 counties experience Deaths of Despair at a rate of more than twice the national average, at 101 per 100,000 population. Last fall, veteran journalist Ray Suarez visited Montana and wrote about what’s happening there.

And the Covid pandemic, which seemed to hit some communities in very different ways than Deaths of Despair, did not have that inverse impact in these parts. Native American Lands saw the worst impacts of both epidemics, ranking No. 1 for both. And, as it was with Deaths of Despair, the figures for Covid deaths stood out for being high above other groups. The Native American Lands were the only community type with a Covid death rate of higher than 300 per 100,000 population.

The Native American Lands did have a few advantages where Covid was concerned. These communities tend to be sparsely populated, which allows for easier social distancing, and they often hold a deep community identity. But a wide range of issues serve as a strong negative counterbalance. If Urban Suburbs and Exurbs offer evidence that socioeconomic advantage can lead to health advantages, the Native American Lands show the opposite is true as well.

Native American Lands scored highest in the ACP types in obesity and smoking rates. They scored in the top two community types in percentage in poor health, uninsured adults, severe housing problems and food insecurity, according to the County Health Rankings. They are among the lowest in median household income and flu vaccination rates.

Many tribal communities understood the dangers of Covid early. Some closed their borders to try to keep out visitors who might more easily spread the virus in what proved to be a more susceptible population. Yet the numbers for Covid deaths stand far above other community types in the ACP, at 318 per 100,000 people.

In some ways the story of Covid-19 in Native American Lands is evidence that strong will and good community effort can only go so far. At some point, the lack of access to the “social determinants of health” is too much to overcome without additional help.

To be clear, this analysis is not exhaustive. Some additional points to note: The Evangelical Hubs are ranked relatively high for Deaths of Despair and Covid mortality. And the communities of Rural Middle America sit in the middle for each. Many socioeconomic and geographic factors play roles in those rankings. Furthermore, there are deeper analyses of Deaths of Despair that will only be possible when those data become available. (It will take years for the county numbers to be released at a national level.)

In the meantime, the ACP will publish a second exploration of this topic, looking at one of our target states, Montana. Working with the state government there, we have obtained detailed data about deaths in the past year — as the two epidemics have been raging simultaneously. We will release that analysis in the coming days.