Effects of Federal Government Worker Layoffs Spread Nationwide

The steady rollout of federal job cuts driven the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) has brought an intense focus to Washington D.C., but, in reality, federal workers are scattered around the country. That means big cuts will have big implications far from the Beltway.

The American Communities Project’s deep dive into federal government employment data shows just how far the reach of federal government jobs extends. That data, from the U.S. Census, shows nearly all U.S. counties have at least some civilian federal government employment and hundreds of counties have large numbers of federal employees — 5% or more of total employment.

Viewed through the ACP’s prism, five of the 15 community types owe 3% or more of their total civilian employment to the federal government. That number is more than it seems. A sudden 1% or 2% loss of jobs can have big effects, especially on small communities.

And that’s not the entire story. The impacts of any layoffs could vary greatly depending on the different unemployment scenarios in the United States. In short, we may not know the full size and scope of the federal layoffs yet, but wide areas of the country are exposed, and not all layoffs are created equal.

Who Is a Federal Worker?

Before we can talk about the impacts of federal government layoffs, we must define the federal civilian workforce, which is not as easy as it sounds.

The Office of Personnel Management quotes a figure of about 2.4 million people. But that excludes the U.S. Postal Service, which adds another 600,000. And none of this includes federal contractors, some of whom work more like direct federal employees. Brookings Institution Fellow Paul Light estimates the true federal workforce number, including contractors and grantees is more than 10 million people — closer to 9 million without the military.

For this analysis, the ACP used data from the American Community Survey from the U.S. Census. Their latest figure, from 2023, shows about 4.2 million people self-identify as federal workers. Mapping that workforce by county shows the reach of federal employment across the country.

Look at that map and some things jump out. Note the darker blues around the Washington, D.C. area, including Maryland and Virginia. But look out west and you’ll see some of those same colors and, more broadly speaking, you see lighter shades of blue all over the map.

Across the ACP Types

When you sort those workers into the ACP 15 community types, you see more evidence of a broad-based civilian federal workforce. In 14 of the 15 types, 2% or more of the employed workers work for the federal government — all but in Rural Middle America. In five community types, the workforce is 3% or more.

It’s worth noting that the Big Cities, the most heavily Democratic-voting community type, are in the bottom half of the ACP types when it comes to federal government employees. Meanwhile, several communities with higher federal employment tend to vote Republican — Military Posts, Native American Lands, and LDS Enclaves.

One reason for federal workers in these communities is that those places tend to have many government offices. (Not all jobs in and around military bases go to the soldiers, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs is active around reservations.) The three community types also tend to be rural, which usually means a heavier reliance on government jobs, at the federal, state, and local levels.

Those percentages may seem small, but remember, most of the 15 community types in the ACP hold millions of people.

So that 8.2% in the Military Posts equals more than 360,000 people. That 3% in the Urban Suburbs equals 1.1 million people. Even Rural Middle America, with the lowest percentage of federal workers, has more than 200,000 people employed by the federal government, according to the Census data.

Of course, all job losses don’t hit the same in the American Communities Project types, because unemployment rates vary.

December Unemployment

Comparing the federal worker numbers to the latest county-level unemployment, from December 2024, shows some differences.

Using those data, the national figure for unemployment sat at roughly 3.8% in December, but the figures are higher in about half of the community types and notably higher in the Hispanic Centers and Native American Lands. Hispanic and Native American communities may be less equipped to handle a raft of government firings.

While the December unemployment rate is not historically high, the data suggest that sudden drops in government employment could have a real impact in particular communities.

For instance, the total number of unemployed people in Military Posts in December, about 161,000, is not even half of the total number of civilian federal workers in those places. So deep government workforce cuts in those communities could easily double their unemployment rates. You can imagine similar challenges in other community types.

For example, the Exurbs have about 377,000 civilian federal employees, according to the Census data. In December, those same counties had 585,000 unemployed. If one-third of those Exurban federal employees were let go, the unemployment rate in the Exurbs could go from 3.4% to 4.1% in just a few months. There might be very different realities — higher or lower rates — in specific Exurban communities, but that’s a big jump in a short time for this community type overall.

The point being, again, that sudden mass firings could create real hardship — not just in Washington, D.C., but across the country.

Much of this is theoretical, of course. DOGE seems to be quickly cutting government positions daily, but there is no way of knowing just how deep the ad-hoc government entity will ultimately slash employment. One thing that’s clear in the data: A wide swath of the nation is exposed in the cuts — in all kinds of communities.