How Voters Across Communities View Mass Deportations of Undocumented Immigrants

The second Trump Administration won’t begin in Washington for two months, but discussions are underway on how to accomplish one of Trump’s biggest campaign promises, a plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

This proposal has brought questions of how many and how and when, but a look at AP VoteCast survey data suggests most voters are not supportive of immediate deportations. That’s true in a majority of the American Communities Project types — even in community types that voted for the president-elect.

As we noted in our preliminary 2024 vote analysis, “immigration” was not the top concern for most voters — it was a distant second on the issue list behind the “economy and jobs.”

The chart shows six community types where 25% of voters or more rated immigration as the top concern. Donald Trump won all those types by 15 percentage points or more. But Trump also won the Exurbs, Middle Suburbs, Military Posts, LDS Enclaves, and Hispanic Centers, where immigration was not as big an issue for voters.

And, of course, immigration wasn’t really close to the top issue in any community types, other than the Aging Farmlands, arguably.

Deportations or a Chance at Legal Status?

But more to the point, the VoteCast survey also asked respondents specifically if immigrants in the country illegally should be 1) offered a chance to apply for legal status, or 2) deported to the country they came from.

Overall, the answer was fairly clear: 55% favored giving undocumented immigrants a chance to apply for legal status, while 44% chose deportation. But within the community types, the data showed real divides. (The community types that voted for Trump are shown in ALL CAPS below.)

There is overwhelming support for deportation in the Aging Farmlands: 71% chose that option, which may be surprising to some people considering how many of those communities rely on migrant labor. (However, some in the Aging Farmlands may seek an exemption for those workers.)

There is also strong support for deportation in the Evangelical Hubs, 65%, a community type that often is not home to many immigrants. In Native American Lands, 57% favor deportation. And 55% support deportation in Rural Middle America and Working Class Country community types, which are both bases of Trump support.

But many of the other numbers here are more complicated.

The Exurbs and Graying America both went for Trump by big margins in 2024 (14 points and 22 points respectively), yet they have very mixed feelings on deportation. Both narrowly favor offering undocumented immigrants a chance at legal status. The Middle Suburbs, the base of Trump’s blue-collar suburban support, are evenly split on the question.

The Hispanic Centers and LDS Enclaves, which both leaned toward Trump in the election, also both strongly favor a chance at legal status. Both community types are home to large Hispanic populations. The Military Posts, located around the bases of the U.S. Armed Forces, also favor a chance at legal status.

And the community types that voted for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 strongly favor a chance at legal status. That’s not a surprise, of course, but those are places where Trump made in-roads in 2024 — something Republicans are celebrating. A mass deportation plan isn’t likely to lock in that GOP growth.

The Risks

Add it all up and what does it mean? The Trump deportation plan may be a slam-dunk for strong Trump supporters, but there are risks involved in terms of the incoming White House holding the support of the electorate.

As we noted in the initial election results analysis, it appears much of Trump’s 2024 win was tied to perceptions about the economy. Ultimately, this past election was quite close. When everything is tallied, Trump will likely win the popular vote by 2 percentage points or less. And if he has a mandate, it seems most likely to be around the economy and jobs and inflation.

Of course, when Trump arrives in the White House in January, he will set the priorities. He earned that right on November 5. But the data suggest voters are not wildly supportive of mass deportations, even in places Trump won.